Rabbits (by 1)
Broncos (by 5)* Against the bookies. Bet 10@3.15*
Sharks (by 9)
Roosters (by 2)* Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.95
Thursday, May 25, 2017
NRL Round 11 results: 6/8: Season Tally:45/88 (51.15)
A better round this round. What is better is that two bets out of 4 came in, meaning a return of $200.8 out of $260 invested
Bookies Tally: 6/8. Season tally: 57/88 (64.78)
Bookies Tally: 6/8. Season tally: 57/88 (64.78)
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
State of Origin Teams - QLD with the advantage
Been looking over the team selections announced yesterday. Doesn't look like a great time for NSW for game 1. Especially based on form this season.
The only positions where NSW has the advantage is for half back (where Mitchell Pearce slightly hedges Cooper Cronk) and the front row where Napa and Myles are outclassed by Fifita and Woods.
Also Josh Jackson slightly shades Papalii in the Second row.
But every other position, its all Queensland. Biggest mismatches are in the centres, where Chambers is all over Dugan, and Hooker, where poor old Peats is going to get a master class from Smith.
As for the Slater/Boyd dilemma, really Boyd is the second best Fullback this year, behind Gutherson. Couldn't be dropped, especially when Slater has yet to regain his form.
The only positions where NSW has the advantage is for half back (where Mitchell Pearce slightly hedges Cooper Cronk) and the front row where Napa and Myles are outclassed by Fifita and Woods.
Also Josh Jackson slightly shades Papalii in the Second row.
But every other position, its all Queensland. Biggest mismatches are in the centres, where Chambers is all over Dugan, and Hooker, where poor old Peats is going to get a master class from Smith.
As for the Slater/Boyd dilemma, really Boyd is the second best Fullback this year, behind Gutherson. Couldn't be dropped, especially when Slater has yet to regain his form.
Thursday, May 18, 2017
Round 10 NRL results: 3/8. Season Tally 39/80 (48.5%)
Shit house result again. Going to mix up my system to reduce the appeal of home field advantage. Will see what happens
Bookies Tally: 5/8. Season Tally 51/80 (63.75)
Bookies Tally: 5/8. Season Tally 51/80 (63.75)
NRL Round 11 Tips and bets
Tuesday, May 16, 2017
Home Field Advantage in NRL Season 2017
Been trying to work out whether Home field advantage is still a thing in the NRL. Hard to work out as it appears teams seem to move their home games around from time to time. Also, my system is having a shocker so wondering if it is because the home field advantage is no longer relevant in NRL.
Well based on 2017, there are really only 6 teams who's Home record is better than their overall record.
They are (in order)
Warriors (100% better)
Newcastle (100% better)
Raiders (50% better)
Panthers (30% better)
Broncos (19% better)
Roosters (7% better)
Interesting that all these teams basically have their home grounds in one location, rather than the modern practice of sharing a home ground with other teams...like ANZ Stadium.
As for those who get no love from home field advantage
Sharks (64% worse)
Manly (60% worse)
Rabbits (50% worse)
Tigers (17% worse)
Dragons (17% worse)
Cowboys (17% worse)
Well based on 2017, there are really only 6 teams who's Home record is better than their overall record.
They are (in order)
Warriors (100% better)
Newcastle (100% better)
Raiders (50% better)
Panthers (30% better)
Broncos (19% better)
Roosters (7% better)
Interesting that all these teams basically have their home grounds in one location, rather than the modern practice of sharing a home ground with other teams...like ANZ Stadium.
As for those who get no love from home field advantage
Sharks (64% worse)
Manly (60% worse)
Rabbits (50% worse)
Tigers (17% worse)
Dragons (17% worse)
Cowboys (17% worse)
Thursday, May 11, 2017
Most Improved/Shocking Teams based on ELO between Round 9 2016 to Round 9 2017
Most Improved (in order)
Roosters (+1.5 SD)
Dragons (+1.1 SD)
Storm ( +0.9 SD)
Sea-Eagle (+0.6 SD)
Bulldogs (+0.5 SD)
Most having a shocker (in order)
Cowboys (-2.9 SD)
Eels (-0.8 SD)
Panthers (-0.7 SD)
Broncos (-0.5 SD)
Tigers (-0.4 SD)
Roosters (+1.5 SD)
Dragons (+1.1 SD)
Storm ( +0.9 SD)
Sea-Eagle (+0.6 SD)
Bulldogs (+0.5 SD)
Most having a shocker (in order)
Cowboys (-2.9 SD)
Eels (-0.8 SD)
Panthers (-0.7 SD)
Broncos (-0.5 SD)
Tigers (-0.4 SD)
ELO Rankings of NRL Teams after 9 Rounds
After 9 rounds...already a demarcation.
Storm and Sharks look the goods again this year. Followed by the Broncos, Dragons and Roosters.
On the downhill slide, the Knights still suck. As do the Cowboys and the Rabbits
Storm and Sharks look the goods again this year. Followed by the Broncos, Dragons and Roosters.
On the downhill slide, the Knights still suck. As do the Cowboys and the Rabbits
| Melbourne Storm | 1818.644641 |
| Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 1741.211847 |
| Brisbane Broncos | 1648.786324 |
| St. George Illawarra Dragons | 1632.707348 |
| Sydney Roosters | 1624.905839 |
| Parramatta Eels | 1589.893872 |
| Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles | 1572.728247 |
| Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | 1548.51052 |
| Canberra Raiders | 1502.301711 |
| New Zealand Warriors | 1415.884076 |
| Penrith Panthers | 1394.462648 |
| Wests Tigers | 1365.504766 |
| Gold Coast Titans | 1358.654209 |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 1315.00037 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 1294.771302 |
| Newcastle Knights | 1176.032279 |
NRL Round 10: Tips and bets
NRL Round 9 results: 5/8. Season tally 36/72 (50%)
A couple of decent rounds. Now at 50% tipping (which is basically the default). One Bet came in meaning I have a kitty of $151.10 out of $220 invested.
Bookies Tally: 5/8, Season Tally 46/72 (63.89%)
Bookies Tally: 5/8, Season Tally 46/72 (63.89%)
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