Tuesday, June 19, 2018

NRL Season 2018 - 4 teams still the most likely, 2 possibles, the rest Goooooooonnnnnnee

After 14 rounds, the NRL season is starting to enter the Business End of the season. Once again, I am calculating z-scores to find the eventual winners of the season.


As mentioned before 10 out of the last 12 years, the Premiers have finished the regular season with a z-score over 1. The other 2 have had z-sores between 1 and 0.53.


So based on that, the front runners (83% likely) would be.


Dragons (z-score of 1.46)
South Sydney (z-score of 1.19)
Panthers (z-score of 1.09)
Warriors (z-score of 1.09)


And if you then include the ones between 1 and 0.53 (17% likely)


Roosters (z-score of 0.85)
Storm (z-score of 0.72)


The rest are cactus for this year.