The end of the regular season - NRL 2014

Well its the end of another regular season of NRL. A few points

1. Very competitive season this year, with the lowest Variance between the the participants in 5 years.
2. Improvers from 5 year average

Sydney Roosters (20%)
Penrith Panthers (17%)
Parramatta Eels (17%)
North Queensland Cowboys (10%)
Rabbits (6%)
Warriors (5%)
Manly (4%)

3. Ones that have struggled

Cronulla (-16%)
Titans (-10%)
St George (-9%)
Raiders (-9%)
Melbourne (-8%)
Tigers (-8%)
Knights (-6%)
Broncos (-6%)
Bulldogs (-4%)

Top 5 players in each position (according to my form guide)

1. Fullback
Jarryd Hayne (Parramatta)
Greg Inglis (Souths)
Michael Gordon (Cronulla)
Billy Slater (Melbourne)
Sam Tomkins (Warriors)

2. Wing
Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Daniel Vidot (Broncos)
Manu Vatuvei (Warriors)
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Sydney)
Semi Radradra (Parramatta)

3. Centre
Dane Gagai (Newcastle)
Will Chambers (Melbourne)
Shaun Kenny-Dowall (Sydney)
Jamal Idris (Penrith)
Joseph Leilua (Newcastle)

4. 5/8th
Dylan Walker (Souths)
Corey Norman (Parramatta)
Jack Wighton (Canberra)
James Maloney (Sydney)
Josh Hoffman (Broncos)

5. Half
Ben Hunt (Broncos)
Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly)
Shaun Johnson (Warriors)
Mitchell Pearce (Sydney)
Adam Reynolds (Souths)

9. Lock
Trent Merrin (St George)
Shaun Fensom (Canberra)
Dale Finucane (Bulldogs)
Adam Blair (Tigers)
Matt Gillett (Broncos)

10. Second Row
Alex Glenn (Broncos)
Simon Mannering (Warriors)
Jason Taumalolo (Cowboys)
Ryan Hoffman (Melbourne)
Ben Creagh (St George)

11. Prop
Sam Burgess (Souths)
James Graham (Bulldogs)
Josh McGuire (Broncos)
Jesse Bromwich (Melbourne)
Corey Parker (Broncos)

12. Hooker
Andrew McCullough (Bulldogs)
Nathan Friend (Warriors)
Cameron Smith (Melbourne)
Matt Ballin (Manly)
Robbie Farah (Tigers)

13. Interchange
Jacob Lillyman (Warriors)
Josh Jackson (Bulldogs)
Paul Vaughan (Canberra)
Jamie Buhrer (Manly)
Tohu Harris (Melbourne)

Team of the week - Change

Been thinking a lot about my team of the week calculations and I think the design is flawed. One of the big issues is that it doesn't account for time on the field. A player might have a great 1st game, but then get injured in Game 2 and still have a lot of form points through out the season...beating players who may have been consistantly good throughout the season, and hence more valuable to their team.

So I have weighted the form by multiplying it by the % of games played in the season. And the results are

Fullback :- Jarryd Hayne (Parramatta) *Same as previous
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith) *Same as previous
Wing :- Daniel Vidot (Broncos) * Same as previous
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Knights) *Same as previous
Centre :- Shaun Kenny-Dowall  (Sydney) *Change
5/8 :- Dylan Walker (Souths) *Same as previous
Half :- Ben Hunt (Broncos) *Change
Lock :- Trent Merrin (Dragons) *Change
Second :- Ben Creagh (St George) *Change
Second :- Alex Glenn (Broncos) *Change
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths) *Same as previous
Prop :- James Graham (Bulldogs) *Same as previous
Hooker :- Matt Ballin (Manly) *Change
Interchange:- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand) *Change
Interchange :- Jamie Buhrer (Manly) *Change
Interchange :- Jeremy Latimore (Penrith) *Change  Interchange :- Paul Vaughan (Canberra) *Change    I think this is a better looking (and more accurate best side than the one previous)

Tips for Round 19

Warriors
Cowboys
Storm
Manly
Titans
Panthers
Souths
Bulldogs

Tips for Round 18

Well, I'm on fire with my tipping. A grand total of a 50% tipping rate...I could be flipping a coin on this season.

To be fair, it's a pretty even season. The variance of the win percentages have been dropping since Round 13...just goes to show what influence Origin has on the teams...brings the leaders back to the pack.

Anyway, tips for this week

New Zealand
Manly
Gold Coast
Penrith
Sharks
Bulldogs


Only two of these are against the favourites...Bulldogs and Sharks.

Team of the week

Fullback :- Jarryd Hayne (Parramatta)
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Daniel Vidot (Broncos)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Knights)
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
5/8 :- Dylan Walker (Souths)
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Paul Gallen (Sharks)
Second :- Anthony Watmough (Manly)
Second :- Ben Creagh (St George)
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- James Graham (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)
Interchange :- Adam Cuthbertson (Newcastle)
Interchange:- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchange :- Tariq Sims (North Queensland) Interchange :- Ben Hannant (Broncos)

Tips for round 17

Roosters
Dragons
Manly
Penrith
Souths

Team of the week

Fullback :- Jarryd Hayne (Parramatta)* New
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Daniel Vidot (Broncos)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Knights)
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
5/8 :- Dylan Walker (Souths)
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Paul Gallen (Sharks)*New
Second :- Anthony Watmough (Manly)
Second :- Ben Creagh (St George)
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- James Graham (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)


Interchange :- Adam Cuthbertson (Newcastle)
Interchange:- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchange :- Tariq Sims (North Queensland) Interchange :- Ben Hannant (Broncos)

Tips for Round 16

Manly
Broncos
Tigers
Souths
Penrith
Parramatta
Melbourne

Team of the week

Fullback :- Billy Slater (Melbourne)
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Daniel Vidot (Broncos)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Knights) *New
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
5/8 :- Dylan Walker (Souths) *New
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Trent Merrin (St George)
Second :- Anthony Watmough (Manly)
Second :- Ben Creagh (St George)
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- James Graham (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)

Interchange :- Adam Cuthbertson (Newcastle)
Interchange:- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchange :- Tariq Sims (North Queensland) Interchange :- Ben Hannant (Broncos)

Tips not great for Round 15...sitting on 2 out of 5

Tips were

Parramatta
North Queensland
Manly
Titans
Broncos
Bulldogs

Team of the week

Fullback :- Billy Slater (Melbourne)
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Daniel Vidot (Broncos)
Centre :- Charly Runciman (St George) *New (1 game only)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Newcastle)
5/8 :- Fa'amanu Brown (Cronulla) (1 game only)
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Trent Merrin (St George)
Second :- Anthony Watmough (Manly)
Second :- Ben Creagh (St George) * New
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- James Graham (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)
Interchange :- Adam Cuthbertson (Newcastle)
Interchange:- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchange :- Tariq Sims (North Queensland) Interchange :- Ben Hannant (Broncos)*New

State of Origin 2 - NSW should win it tonight

Looking over the two sides again, and it is NSW again picking a form side.

I have them overpowering by less than 10 points in backs and forwards, but overpower them on the bench by 20 points.

All up, a 40 odd point differential in form. Combined with injuries to a few key players in QLD, the home field advantage, there is no better time for NSW to win.

NSW by 10 at least in my opinion.

Tips for Round 14

Sydney
GoldCoast
Penrith
Souths
Bulldogs

Team of the week

Fullback :- Billy Slater (Melbourne)
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Daniel Vidot (Broncos)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Newcastle)
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
5/8 :- Fa'amanu Brown (Cronulla) *New (1 game only)
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Trent Merrin (St George)
Second :- Anthony Watmough (Manly)
Second :- Sonny Bill Williams (Sydney) * New
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- James Graham (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)
Interchange :- Adam Cuthbertson (Newcastle)
Interchange:- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchange :- Tariq Sims (North Queensland) Interchange :- Josh Jackson (Bulldogs)

7 out of 8 for my tipping..Yeh!

Though my current tipping percentage after 13 rounds is still only 52%

4 out of 6 for round 12. Round 13 NRL tips

I have the following tips

Paramatta
Sydney
St George
Broncos
Penrith
West Tigers
Souths
Bulldogs

Team of the week

Fullback :- Billy Slater (Melbourne)
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Daniel Vidot (Broncos)*New
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Newcastle)
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
5/8 :- Josh Reynolds (Bulldogs)
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Trent Merrin (St George)
Second :- Anthony Watmough (Manly)
Second :- Ben Creagh (St George) * New
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- James Graham (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)
Interchange :- Adam Cuthbertson (Newcastle)
Interchange:- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchange :- Tariq Sims (North Queensland)  Interchange :- Ben Hannant (Broncos) 

Round 12 tips - NRL

Panthers Sydney
Storm
New Zealand
Manly
Souths

Team of the week

Fullback :- Billy Slater (Melbourne)
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Jorge Taufua (Manly)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Newcastle)
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
5/8 :- Josh Reynolds (Bulldogs)
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Trent Merrin (St George)
Second :- Anthony Watmough (Manly)
Second :- Sonny Bill Williams (Sydney) * New
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- James Graham (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)
Interchange :- Adam Cuthbertson (Newcastle)
Interchange:- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchange :- Tariq Sims (North Queensland) *New Interchange :- Ben Hannant (Broncos) *New

1 out of 5....the origin stuff just kills my tipping

Team of the week - Forgot it!

Team of the week
Fullback :- Billy Slater (Melbourne) *New
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Jorge Taufua (Manly)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Newcastle)
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
5/8 :- Josh Reynolds (Bulldogs)
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Trent Merrin (St George)
Second :- Anthony Watmough (Manly) *New
Second :- Manu Ma'u (Parramatta) * New
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- James Graham (Bulldogs) *New
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)

Interchange :- Adam Cuthbertson (Newcastle)
Interchange:- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchange :- Tupou Sopoaga (Cronulla)
Interchange :- Tariq Sims (North Queensland) *New

Round 11 tips

See how my system goes this week.

Bulldogs
Titans
West Tigers
North Queensand
Souths

State of Origin 2014 - The Teams

Been Running my eye over the squads for Game 1 of the State Of Origin. A couple of points.

1. NSW have picked a form side: According to my figures, the NSW Team is in greater form than the Queensland team, in both the backs and forwards.

2. Queensland have picked on History: There is no way that Darius Boyd, Justin Hodges, Chris McQueen (second most underperfoming second rower in the league!) or Josh Papalii would have been picked on form this season.

3. The only saving grace is the Queensland experiece in the spine. When you look at Slater, Thurston, Cronk and Parker, vs Hayne, Reynolds, Hodkinson and Gallen, there is only one group who you would say wouldn't panic under the pressure.

But I reconn, it will be NSW this year...by a whisker. Queensland have a few passengers in their side this year...and there is no place for free riders in origin.

Power tips results - 5 out of 8...Getting better

My system improves by 1 out of 8 (still 12.5%)

Round 10 tips....New System after a 4 out of 8 drubbing again with my system last week

Tips for this week

Souths
Titans
Eels
Tigers
Roosters
Penrith
Bulldogs
Manly

Team of the week

Fullback :- Sam Perrett (Bulldogs)
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Jorge Taufua (Manly) *New (4 Games only)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Newcastle) *New No 1 position
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
5/8 :- Josh Reynolds (Bulldogs) *New
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Trent Merrin (St George)
Second :- Boyd Cordner (Sydney)
Second :- Sonny Bill Williams (Sydney)* New
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- Aiden Tolman (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)
Interchange :- Adam Cuthbertson (Newcastle) * New No 1 position
Interchange:- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchange :- Tupou Sopoaga (Cronulla)
Interchange :- Paul Vaughan (Canberra) 

Forgot my team of the week

Fullback :- Sam Perrett (Bulldogs) *New
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Ngani Laumape (Warriors) *New (3 Games only)
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Newcastle)
5/8 :- Kieran Foran (Manly)
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Trent Merrin (St George)
Second :- Boyd Cordner (Sydney)*New No 1 position
Second :- Manu Ma'u (Parramatta)* New
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- Aiden Tolman (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)

Interchange :- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchange : - Adam Cuthbertson (Newcastle) *New
Interchange :- Paul Vaughan (Canberra)
Interchange :- Tupou Sopoaga (Cronulla)

Round 9 Power tips - Late

My winners for this week should be

Roosters
North Queensland
Canberra
Titans
Manly
Panthers
Bulldogs
Cronulla

So far 4 out of 7..

Results of Round 8 - 4 out of 8! Boo..

Still not quite there with my tipping. Oh well, the search for the perfect system continues

Round 8 power tips NRL 2014

It's that time again....tipping time

My tips

Roosters
Storm
Broncos
Penrith
Cowboys
Bulldogs
Raiders
Titans

Team of the week

Fullback :- Josh Dugan (St George) *New

Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Jorge Taufua (Manly) *New (2 Games only)
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Newcastle)
5/8 :- Kieran Foran (Manly)
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Trent Merrin (St George)
Second :- Anthony Watmough (Manly)
Second :- Boyd Cordner (Sydney)
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- Aiden Tolman (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)

Interchange :- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchanage : - Paul Vaughan (Canberra)
Interchange :- David Shillington (Canberra)
Interchange :- Tupou Sopoaga (Cronulla) *New

Results of Round 7 NRL tipping - 4 out of 8! Boo....

Still ordinary, but improving.

Round 7 Power Tips NRL 2014

My tips would be

Bulldogs
Newcastle
North Queensland
Warriors
Roosters
Raiders
West Tigers
Titans

Top performing team

Fullback :- Sam Perrett (Bulldogs)
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Ngani Laumape (Warriors) *New (1 Game only)
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Newcastle)
5/8 :- Kieran Foran (Manly) *New
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Trent Merrin (St George)
Second :- Anthony Watmough (Manly)
Second :- Boyd Cordner (Sydney) *New
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :- Aiden Tolman (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)
Interchange :- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand) *New
Interchanage : - Paul Vaughan (Canberra) *New
Interchange :- David Shillington (Canberra) *New
Interchange :- Tariq Sims (North Queensland) *New

Results of Round 6 Power Tips - 3 out of 8...booo

Not a great score first out. Still 3 is better than 0 at the end of the day.

Round 6 NRL 2014 - Power Team tips

Back in the saddle.

Have my power team tips again for Round 6 based on the goatameter form guide. My tips are :-

Penrith
Titans
Raiders
Roosters
Cowboys
Bulldogs
Cronulla
Storm

Top performing Team at the moment

Fullback :- Sam Perrett (Bulldogs)
Wing :- Josh Mansour (Penrith)
Wing :- Tim Lafai (Bulldogs)
Centre :- Jamal Idris (Penrith)
Centre :- Dane Gagai (Newcastle)
5/8 :- Johnathan Thurston (North Queensland)
Half :- Albert Kelly (Gold Coast)
Lock :- Trent Merrin (St George)
Second :- Anthony Watmough (Manly)
Second :- Greg Bird (Gold Coast)
Prop :- Sam Burgess (Souths)
Prop :-  Aiden Tolman (Bulldogs)
Hooker :- Robbie Farah (West Tigers)
Interchange :- Paul Vaughan (Canberra)
Interchange :- Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand)
Interchange :- Tupou Sopoaga (Cronulla)
Interchange :- David Shillington (Canberra)