NRL Round 26 Results: 5/8. Season Tally: 111/192 (57.8%)

Well, so ends a pretty ordinary season as far as tipping goes. Under 60% is piss poor. I think the big issue was my failure to understand the home field advantage degradation for certain teams this season. As part of my analysis, I think I will have to work out the individual home field advantage stats in the beginning of the season.


And my betting was shit. I put in $500 and only received $405 back...a net loss of 19%. Not great. Still haven't found a good betting strategy..


Bookies had a field day though. They had a tipping percentage of 67% this season, 10% more than my strategy.


Bookies Tally: 7/8. Season Tally: 128/192 (66.67%)

NRL Round 26: Tips and bets

Cowboys (by 3) * Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.6
Eels (by 12)
Roosters (by 22)
Penrith (by 17) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.05
Storm (by 15)
Sharks (by 6)
Dragons (by 1)
Tigers (by 12)

Predictions for NRL Season 2017 - Only 5 teams in it

Once again, I turn to z-scores to predict the teams that will win the NRL premiership, and again, its really down to 2 teams who have a z-score over 1.


These are Storm with a z-score of 1.93, and the Roosters, with a z-score of 1.16.


The next tier down of possibles (z-scores over 0.53), are the following

Broncos	0.903696
Eels	0.903696
Sharks	0.645497

Round 25 Results: 5/8. Season Tally = 106/184 (57.61%)

Not a bad round. Still pretty piss poor results all up.


1 bet came in, meaning I have won $405 this season, after putting in $480. Not a great tally with my system. Think I need a new one next season.


Bookies Tally: 4/8. Season Tally = 121/184 (66.12%)

NRL Round 25 Tips and bets

Broncos (by 10)
Raiders (by 17)
Cowboys (by 4)
Bulldogs (by 8) * Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.10
Storm (by 17)
Sharks (by 1)
Manly (by 5)
Panthers (by 22)

NRL Round 24 Results : 6/8. Season Tally 101/176 (57.39%)

Not a bad week. No wins though as all bets with the bookies.


Bookies Tally: 6/8. Season Tally = 117/176 (66.85%)

NRL Round 24: Tips and bets

Eels (by 15)
Rabbits (by 11)
Broncos (by 17)
Storm (by14)
Roosters (by 7)
Sharks (by 1)
Raiders (by 4)
Manly (by 13)

NRL Round 23 Results: 5/8: Season Tally: 95/168 (56.55%)

An ok round. Though lost a bet so another $10 out of pocket.


Bookies Tally: 6/8. Season Tally 111/168 (66.47%)

NRL Round 23 Tips and Bets

Bulldogs (by 1)* Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.4
Eels (by 24)
Broncos (by 4)
Dragons (by 2)
Storm (by 17)
Panthers (by 9)
Raiders (by 5)
Manly (by 10)

NRL Round 22 results: 4/8. Season Tally = 90/160 (56.25%)

Another ordinary round from me...this season has been a shocker.


Bookies Tally: 4/8. Season Tally = 105/160 (66.04%)

NRL Round 22: Tips and Bets

Parramatta (by 15)
Dragons (by 3)
Melbourne (by 5)
Warriors (by 2)
Broncos (by 5)
Sharks (by 9)
Roosters (by 11)
Panthers (by 17)


All with the bookies. So no bets

ELO Rankings of Teams after 21 Rounds

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	1822.848
Melbourne Storm	1818.387
Parramatta Eels	1749.63
North Queensland Cowboys	1702.713
Penrith Panthers	1654.528
Sydney Roosters	1604.044
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	1517.634
Brisbane Broncos	1501.627
Wests Tigers	1418.77
Canberra Raiders	1398.218
Gold Coast Titans	1385.561
St. George Illawarra Dragons	1381.989
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	1367.027
South Sydney Rabbitohs	1309.274
New Zealand Warriors	1306.755
Newcastle Knights	1060.995

NRL Round 21 Results: 4/8. Season Tally = 86/152 (56.57%)

Another mediocre round :-(


One bet came in out of three, meaning $384 return with $460 invested.


Bookies Tally 5/8: Season Tally =101/152 (66.89%)

NRL Round 21: Tips and Bets

Panthers (by 18)
Sharks (by 10)
Eels (by 6) * Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.71
Dragons (by 14)
Storm (by 8)
Rabbits (by 5) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.52
Cowboys (by 1)*Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.29
Titans (by 11)

NRL Round 20 Results: 7/8. Season Tally 82/144 (58.33%)

Not a bad round. No bets however as all with the bookies.


Bookies Tally 7/8. Season Tally 96/144 (67.13%)

NRL Round 20: Tips and Bets

Again, all with the bookies this week


Broncos (by 13)
Roosters (by 31)
Sharks (by 1)
Panthers (by 10)
Storm (by 9)
Cowboys (by 16)
Manly (by 19)
Parramatta (by 17)

NRL Round 19 results: 4/6. Season Tally: 75/136 (55.15%)

An ok round. No Bets due to the fact my tips were the same as the bookies.


Bookies Tally: 4/6. Season Tally: 89/136 (65.93%)

NRl Round 19 Tips and Bets

Warriors (by 6)
Raiders (by 6)
Broncos (by 13)
Sharks (by 20)
Manly (by 9)
Cowboys (by 6)

NRL Round 18 Results: 2/4. Season Tally 71/130 (54.62%)

Another ordinary Round. 1 bet came good out of 3 meaning I am sitting on $357 with $430 invested.


Bookies Tally: 3/4. Season Tally 85/120 (65.89%

NRL Round 18 Tips and Bets

Roosters (by 6)* Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.3
Manly (by 9)*Against the bookies. Bet 10@1.91
Storm (by 14)*Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.45
Bulldogs (by 17)

NRL Round 17 results: 3/8. Season Tally 69/126 (54.76%)

Not a great round. 1 bet came in out of 3, meaning I am sitting on $334 with $400 invested.


Bookies Tally 4/8: Season Tally 82/126 (65.6%)

NRL Round 17: Tips and Bets

Eels (by 5)
Dragons (by 5) *Equal to the bookies. Bet 10@1.91
Broncos (by 1) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.3
Roosters (by 4)
Manly (by 4)
Cowboys (by 5)*Against the bookies, Bet 10@2.5
Knights (by 5)
Panthers (by 5)

NRL Round 16 Results: 4/7. Season Tally 66/118 (55.93%)

Reasonable round. Two bets came in meaning I am now at $309 with $370 invested.


Bookies Tally: 4/7 Season Tally 78/118 (66.67%)

NRL Round 16 Tips and Bets

Warriors (by 9)
Tigers (by 2) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.35
Cowboys (by 2) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@1.98
Raiders (by 5)
Storm (by 7) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@3.34
Dragons (by 11)
Manly (by 6) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.40

Round 15 Results: 3/4. Season Tally 62/111 (55.86%)

Lost one bet meaning Tally of $266.10 out of $330 invested.


Bookies Tally 4/4: Season Tally 74/111 (67.27%)

NRL Round 15 tips and bets

Rabbits (by 3)
Storm (by 6)
Sharks (by 13)
Dragons (by 3) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.20

NRL Round 14 results: 6/8. Season Tally: 59/107 (55.14%)

Two bets came in. Meaning tally of $266.10 out of $320 invested.


Bookies Tally:5/8. Season Tally 70/106 (66.04%)

NRL Round 14 Tips and Bets

Melbourne (by 5) * Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.33
Manly (by 16)
Broncos (by 13)
Warriors (by 1)* Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.15
Panthers (by 3)
Eels (by 1) * Against the bookies. Bet 10@2
Roosters (by 12)
Dragons (by 14)

NRL Round 13 results - Perfect Round! (7/7): Season Tally: 53/99 (53.06%)

Also bet came in, so now have total of $221.30 out of $290 invested.


Bookies Tally: 5/7. Season Tally 65/99 (66.33%)

NRL Round 13 Tips and Bets

Storm (by 25)
Eels (by 2)
Dragons (by 13)
Roosters (by 11)
Cowboys (by 1)
Manly (by 1) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.05
Panthers (by 2)

NRL Round 12 results: 1/4!!! Season Tally: 46/92 (50%)

No words. Might as well flip a coin.Two bets down. Return of $200.80 out of $280 invested.


Bookies Tally 3/4 Season Tally 60/92 (65.21%)

NRL Round 12 Tips and Bets

Rabbits (by 1)
Broncos (by 5)* Against the bookies. Bet 10@3.15*
Sharks (by 9)
Roosters (by 2)* Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.95

NRL Round 11 results: 6/8: Season Tally:45/88 (51.15)

A better round this round. What is better is that two bets out of 4 came in, meaning a return of  $200.8 out of $260 invested


Bookies Tally: 6/8. Season tally: 57/88 (64.78)

State of Origin Teams - QLD with the advantage

Been looking over the team selections announced yesterday. Doesn't look like a great time for NSW for game 1. Especially based on form this season.


The only positions where NSW has the advantage is for half back (where Mitchell Pearce slightly hedges Cooper Cronk) and the front row where Napa and Myles are outclassed by Fifita and Woods.
Also Josh Jackson slightly shades Papalii in the Second row.


But every other position, its all Queensland. Biggest mismatches are in the centres, where Chambers is all over Dugan, and Hooker, where poor old Peats is going to get a master class from Smith.


As for the Slater/Boyd dilemma, really Boyd is the second best Fullback this year, behind Gutherson. Couldn't be dropped, especially when Slater has yet to regain his form.

Round 10 NRL results: 3/8. Season Tally 39/80 (48.5%)

Shit house result again. Going to mix up my system to reduce the appeal of home field advantage. Will see what happens


Bookies Tally: 5/8. Season Tally 51/80 (63.75)

NRL Round 11 Tips and bets

Sharks (by 3)
Dragons (by 11)* Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.67
Broncos (by 20)
Manly (by 7) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.3
Eels (by 7) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.4
Knights (by 3)* Against the bookies. Bet 10@3.7
Roosters (by 8)
Storm (by 11)

Home Field Advantage in NRL Season 2017

Been trying to work out whether Home field advantage is still a thing in the NRL. Hard to work out as it appears teams seem to move their home games around from time to time. Also, my system is having a shocker so wondering if it is because the home field advantage is no longer relevant in NRL.


Well based on 2017, there are really only 6 teams who's Home record is better than their overall record.


They are (in order)


Warriors (100% better)
Newcastle (100% better)
Raiders (50% better)
Panthers (30% better)
Broncos (19% better)
Roosters (7% better)


Interesting that all these teams basically have their home grounds in one location, rather than the modern practice of sharing a home ground with other teams...like ANZ Stadium.


As for those who get no love from home field advantage


Sharks (64% worse)
Manly (60% worse)
Rabbits (50% worse)
Tigers (17% worse)
Dragons (17% worse)
Cowboys (17% worse)

Most Improved/Shocking Teams based on ELO between Round 9 2016 to Round 9 2017

Most Improved (in order)


Roosters (+1.5 SD)
Dragons  (+1.1 SD)
Storm ( +0.9 SD)
Sea-Eagle (+0.6 SD)
Bulldogs (+0.5 SD)


Most having a shocker (in order)


Cowboys (-2.9 SD)
Eels (-0.8 SD)
Panthers (-0.7 SD)
Broncos (-0.5 SD)
Tigers (-0.4 SD)

ELO Rankings of NRL Teams after 9 Rounds

After 9 rounds...already a demarcation.


Storm and Sharks look the goods again this year. Followed by the Broncos, Dragons and Roosters.


On the downhill slide, the Knights still suck. As do the Cowboys and the Rabbits

Melbourne Storm	1818.644641
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	1741.211847
Brisbane Broncos	1648.786324
St. George Illawarra Dragons	1632.707348
Sydney Roosters	1624.905839
Parramatta Eels	1589.893872
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	1572.728247
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	1548.51052
Canberra Raiders	1502.301711
New Zealand Warriors	1415.884076
Penrith Panthers	1394.462648
Wests Tigers	1365.504766
Gold Coast Titans	1358.654209
South Sydney Rabbitohs	1315.00037
North Queensland Cowboys	1294.771302
Newcastle Knights	1176.032279

NRL Round 10: Tips and bets

Bulldogs (by 17)
Dragons (by 2) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@3.05
Tigers (by 2) *Against the bookies. bet 10@2.05
Panthers (by 5)
Storm (by 18)
Broncos (by 9)
Raiders (by 7)
Roosters (by 8)

NRL Round 9 results: 5/8. Season tally 36/72 (50%)

A couple of decent rounds. Now at 50% tipping (which is basically the default). One Bet came in meaning I have a kitty of $151.10 out of $220 invested.


Bookies Tally: 5/8, Season Tally 46/72 (63.89%)

NRL Round 9 tips and bets

Broncos (by 15)
Manly (by 4)
Cowboys (by 4)
Titans (by 10)
Bulldogs (by 5) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.75
Sharks  (by 6)
Roosters (by 4)
Dragons (by 8) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.75

Round 8 Results: 5/8. Season Tally 31/64 (48.43%)

Another tough round. All with the bookies, so no bets. Onto Round 9


Bookies Tally: 5/8. Season Tally 41/64 (64.06%)

NRL Round 8 Tips and Bets

All with the bookies this week




Raiders (by 13)
Broncos (by 2)
Panthers (by 1)
Cowboys (by 13)
Sharks (by 29)
Bulldogs (by 12)
Roosters (by 1)
Storm (by 18)

NRL Round 7 results: 5/8. Season Tally : 26/56 (46.4%)

An Ok round, but no bets came through. Meaning I am sitting on winnings of $123.60 after spending $200. Ordinary work this season.


Bookies are on fire after 7 rounds. Oh well, will see if this round brings me some relief.


Bookies Tally: 7/8. Season Tally 36/56 (64.3%)

NRL Round 7 tips and bets

Bulldogs (by 2)
Roosters (by 5)
Broncos (by 22)
Manly (by 1)* Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.4
Raiders (by 13)
Dragons (by 21)
Panthers (by 1)
Tigers (by 6) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.25

NRL Round 6 results: 2/8. Season Tally 21/48 (43.75%)

Another shocking round. Can't pick to save my life at the moment. 1 bet came in with the Warriors though. Still leaves me with $123.60 winnings, based on $180 spent. Still behind.


Hope Easter can get me through.


Bookies result: 3/8. Season Tally 29/48 (60.4%)

NRL Round 6: Tips and Bets

Broncos (by 1)
Knights (by 4) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.60
Panthers (by 12)
Manly (by 6)
Titans (by 1) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.95
Cowboys (by 18)
Warriors (by 4)
Storm (by 14)

NRL Round 5 Results: 7/8! Season Tally 19/40 (47.5%)

Better round this round. Almost at 50% for the season.


Also, bet came through meaning that I now have won $103.5 with $150 invested. Still behind, but not as bad as it was.


Lets hope Round 6 delivers as well.


Bookies result : 6/8. Season Tally 26/40 (65%)

NRL Round 5: Tips and bets

Bulldogs (by 1)* Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.90
Roosters (by 17)
Cowboys (by 6)
Sharks (by 14)
Raiders (by 3)
Storm (by 5)
Warriors (by 4)
Dragons (by 4)

NRL Round 4 results: 5/8. Season Tally : 12/32 (37.5%)

Another round, a better round. Got a 5/8 return this week which was better than the last 3 rounds. Still sitting at a sub 50% rate though. Piss poor.


Bets have also been dodgy. Invested $140 in the bets so far, and only returned $74.40 Not a greate return.


Oh well, lets hope things continue their upward climb.


Bookies result: 7/8 Season Tally: 20/32 (62.5%)

NRL Round 4 Tips and bets

Come in spinner


Rabbits (by 3) * Against the bookies. Bet $10@2.85
Panthers (by 13)
Broncos (by 12)
Manly (by 5) *Against the bookies. Bet $10@1.94
Eels (by 5) *Against the bookies. Bet $10@1.94
Titans (by 10) *Against the bookies. Bet $10@2.30
Melbourne (by 8)
Dragons (by 14)

NRL Round 3 results: 2/8 again! Season Tally 7/24 (29.17%)

Another round, another shocker. Seems like my system is not responding well to the inconsistent form of home teams at the moment.


Also, another $20 down the drain with my tipping meaning I am -$45 for the season. Need a big couple of rounds over the next few or so to come back.


Bookies Tally:  4/8 Season Tally: 13/24 (54.17%)

NRL Round 3 - Tips and bets

Tips for this week.


Storm (by 12)
Warriors (by 1)
Eels (by 8)
Knights (by 6) * Against the bookies. Bet $10@2.25
Panthers (by 6) *Toss up. Bet $10@1.92
Cowboys (by 18)
Raiders (by 2)
Sharks (by 11)

NRL Results - Round 2: 2/8!! Season Tally 5/16 (31.25%)

Bloody hell, having a shocker so far. All about the away games so far this season, and as my system favours home games, it hasn't been a good result.


Good news is the might Knights got up their first win of the season, meaning an extra $25 in the kitty, though with an outlay of $40 in bets, not a great return. Sitting on -$25 for the season so far after 2 rounds.


Hopefully this weekend we will do better.


Bookies Tips, 4/8: Season Tally for bookies 9/16 (56.25%)

Companies to buy - 13/03/2017

A few interesting companies appearing on my TO BUY list tonight

A lot of mining companies...never had much fun investing in miners but a couple look ok, though have dropped a lot in the last couple of weeks.

BHP (down 6% in 11 days)
Rio Tinto (down 6% in 11 days)
Fortescue (down 6% in 11 days)

Also Bellamy's (8%) and Ramsey Healthcare (6%) are both down a bit. Might be time to have a punt on a couple of these. Will investigate and get back to you, dear readers.

Married at first sight - big stats

What is going on with "Married at First sight". People can't seem to get enough of this program. Been consistently building an audience over the episodes. Usually you expect a bit of "plateauing", but haven't seen any evidence of this so far.



I guess there is an audience for fake marital bliss.

NRL Round 2: Tips and bets

Roosters (by 14)
Warriors (by 4) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.15
Broncos (by 9)
Knights (by 10) * Against the bookies. Bet $10@2.5
Manly (by 7)
Raiders (by 9)
Tigers (by 14) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.05
Dragons (by 5)*Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.12


Good luck!

NRL Round 1 results : 3 out of 8. Bet return : -$10

Not the best return for round 1.


3 out of 8 for wins. $40 invested in bets, with $30 won...meaning -$10 gross return. Boo. Still, a long season ahead.


Bookies result: 5 out of 8.

NRL SEASON 2017!!!! Tips and bets for Round 1

The NRL season starts tonight! I'm excited.


Not a bad season last year as far as tipping is concerned. My system produced a 64.18% tip ration which wasn't too bad. Still underperformed the Bookies ratio of 66.67%.


Hoping to do better this year.


Will also be on twitter with my tips this year, so follow me on @Scottythegoat if you need to.




Tips for Round 1.


Sharks * Against the bookies (bet 10@2.1)
Bulldogs * Against the bookies (bet 10@2.02)
Rabbits
Dragons * Against the bookies (bet 10@3)
Cowboys
Warriors
Titans * Against the bookies (bet 10@2.2)
Manly