Monday, August 3, 2015

Dancing with the stars - Statistical Analysis of the bottom 3.

For some reason, and I'm not really sure why, I like Dancing with the stars. Its a bit disconcerting for me, as I am pretty blokey in most other ways, but there is something about celebrities being out of their depth on the dance floor that is compelling viewing.


Anyway, first two people to be punted from the show were John Paul Young(aging male singer) and The Bachelor himself, Tim Whathisame.


So I was wondering, if there is any particular type of celebrity that gets punted first. After all, half the points come from the home audience so it's not all about talent.


So I went through the last 14 seasons and got the bottom 3 people in each series. I then grouped them into the various categories (old, NRL star, Reality TV etc) and  then compared that with the numbers of each category overall. So that way, if 20% of the contestants were Reality TV stars, but 40% of bottom 3 members were Reality cast members, then Reality has 2 times greater chance of getting in the bottom 3 than the average contestant. The end results are as follows


NRL Stars                  2.06 times
Models                       1.85 times
Reality TV                 1.47 times
TV Miscellaneous     1.47 times
Old                             1.37 times
Olympians                 1.29 times
Channel 7 Presenters 0.49 times
AFL Stars                  0.49 times
Singers                       0.20 times
Boxers                        0 times
Home and Away        0 times
WAG                          0 times


Interesting results. I don't understand why we like WAGS so much...And Boxers. Poor old NRL is second fiddle to AFL, but I think that is a national profile thing. NRL doesn't sell outside the East Coast. Models are a strange one. Easy on the eye, but not a lot of personality.


So a couple of things for this season


Most likely to get punted next week would be in order


1. Matt Rogers (NRL Star)
2. Samantha Harris(Model)
3. Ash Pollard (Reality)
3. Emma Friedman (TV Miscellaneous)
5. Kelly Cartwright (Olympian)
5. Matthew Mitcham (Olympian)
7.Larry Emdur (Channel 7 Presenter)
7. Jude Bolton (AFL Star)
9. Lynette Bolton (WAG)


See how we go.

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