NRL Round 26: Tips and bets

All with the bookies this week. So ultimately going to finish behind in my bets by 80 cents.
$480 invested, $479.20 in the kitty at the end. Basically my system is a break even proposition :-(


Broncos (by 16)
Bulldogs (by 8)
Dragons (by 19)
Cowboys (by 11)
Storm (by 14)
Canberra (by 6)
Warriors (by 3)
Panthers (by 17)

NRL Round 25 Results: 4/8. Season Tally 117/184 (63.6%)

Not the best round this time. 4 out of 8. Lost a bet again...the bulldogs are killing me!
Last round next week. Hopefully a big round to end it.


Bookies Tally: 5/8. Season Tally 121/184 (65.8%)

NRL Round 25 Tips and bets

Bulldogs (by 7) * Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.15
Storm (by 22)
Raiders (by 12)
Titans (by 1)
Sharks (by 9)
Warriors (by 1)
Rabbits (by 8)
Eels (by 10)

NRL Round 24 Results: 6/8. Season tally: 113/176 (64.2%)

Not a bad round. 6/8 is ok. Lost my bet when the Bulldogs decided to not turn up at SUNCORP however. Leaves my kitty at $479.20 out of $470 invested (a return of 1.96%) :-(


Bookies Tally 7/8. Season Tally 116/176 (65.9%)

NRL Round 24: Tips and Bets

Bulldogs (by 1) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.65
Panthers (by 6)
Titans (by 14)
Storm (by 8)
Cowboys (by 7)
Raiders (by 28)
Roosters (by 9)
Sharks (by 7)

NRL Round 23 Results: 4/8. Season Tally 107/168 (63.7%)

A tough round. Beat the bookies on one bet however, meaning a kitty of $479.20 with an investment of $460 (return of 4.17%)


Bookies Tally: 3/8. Season Tally 109/168 (64.9%)

Predictions for NRL Season 2016 - Only 5 teams can win it

Been looking at the Z-scores for the NRL Teams in Season 2016. At the moment, for 4 rounds to go, there are only two teams who have a Z-Score of over 1...Melbourne and Cronulla.


8 out of the last 10 Premiers have finished the regular season with a z-score over 1. The other two have been between 1 and 0.53.


So if we assume the win% stays the same, and there are no changes to the Standard Deviation, the only potential winners (i.e have a z-score of over 0.53) will be


Melbourne (2016 z-score = 1.77)
Cronulla (2016 z-score = 1.52)
Raiders (2016 z-score = 0.78)
Bulldogs (2016 z-score = 0.78)
Cowboys (2016 z-score = 0.53)


*Broncos could join the mix if they win their last 4 games though I would say that is unlikely given their form and the fact they have to play the Bulldogs at home and Melbourne away

NRL Round 23 Tips and Bets

Bulldogs (by 10)
Broncos (by 2)
Tigers (by 14) *Against the bookies (they are tipping a draw). Bet 10@1.90
Warriors (by 29)
Sharks (by 17)
Panthers (by 17)
North Queensland (by 4)
Raiders (by 5) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.30

NRL Round 22 Results: 5/8. Season Tally 103/160 (64.4%)

Not a bad round tipping as there were a few upsets. Good news is that two of my bets came in putting me in positive return for the first time in a while. Now have a kitty of $456.20 with an investment of $440 (so a return of around 3.7%) which is more than the bank account these days! :-)


Bookies Result: 4/8. Season Tally 106/160 (66.3%)

NRL Round 22 Tips and Bets

Dragons (by 5) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@3.85
Eels (by 3) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.65
Bulldogs (by 22)
Sharks (by 14)
Storm (by 33)
Titans (by 8)
Tigers (by 6) *Against the bookies. Bet 10@2.65
Panthers (by 17)

NRL Round 21 Results: 6/8. Season Tally 98/152 (64.47%)

Not a bad round. 6/8 is pretty good. One bet out of 2 came in meaning a kitty of $403.20 with $410 invested.


Bookies Result: 6/8. Season Tally 102/152 (67.1%)