How do they figure our Australian TV ratings

From what I have learnt from the OzTAM website (the official supplier of TV Audience stats), this is how I believe it works. They use a sampling technique.

There are about 3000 peoplemeters out there (all states, all demographics) that record who is watching what (apparently they record tv watching every minute, every day). They then send that info back to the oztam head office who create an average audience for each channel for each minute. They then sum up the total for say “The apprentice” (sum those that watched Ch9 between 9:30 Pm to 10:30 PM for at least a minute divided by 60 minutes). So if 20 people watched for the full 60 minutes, the equation would be 20*60/60 = 20 people. If 10 watched for 20 minutes and 10 watched for 60 minutes, it would be ((10*20)+(10*60))/60 = 13.33 people. In that way they get the percentages right. They then extrapolate that (based on the demographic data) and apply it to all those in Australia who have a TV…It creates the figures that are then published.

Of course, because it is a sample, there is a sample variance (or error) which is conveniently left off the figures (dodgy).Apparently, they are going to start with Timeshift reporting soon, which tries to pick up people who have recorded shows via PVR’s to watch later…they are left off the figures at the moment. Will be a little more accurate.

The little aussie battler

Those of you that know me, know that I am studying Finance and Management at the University of Technology, Sydney. One of the subjects I am doing this semester is a subject called Quantatative Business Analysis (or QBA). Pretty much deals with Maths and using statistics to discover relationships between various sets of Data. Very interesting subject (if pretty difficult).

Anyway, the assignment we have been given is to discover the relationship between the Australian Dollar and commodity prices during the Sub-Prime era (between Jan 07 and Jan 09, otherwise known as the GFC). The basic premise being that the Australian dollar moves in conjunction with the price of Australia's exports (i.e coal and metal). Not a bad argument and it is found to be true after Aug 08. However before Aug 08, the opposite is true. The Australian dollar was increasing while the metal prices were decreasing. Our lecturer last night put it as statistically "weird".

However, I don't think so. Last year, during the subject "The Financial system", our lecturer stated that there is a better collelation between the Reserve Bank Cash rate target and the
Australian Dollar.

So I decided to put the data in a couple of graphs. If we chart Interest rate Vs Time we get the following:

As you can see, Interest rates increased to Aug 08 and then fell through the floor befor stabilizing.

Now if we compare that to how the Australian Dollar has performed over the same period of time:-

Not a bad correlation really. So you would have to suggest that interest rates are more of an indication of how the Australian dollar moves than metal prices.

But I might put some results from Eviews in here at some time to see if there is a valid correlation here and whether it is statistically significant

Another day, another prediction of imminent destruction because of Climate Change

Is it just me or is everyone else a little over the whole “Fight Climate Change or the Earth will be destroyed” rubbish. This time its Bonnie Prince Charles, that well know eminent climatologist who has predicted the end of the world (as we know it) if drastic action is not taken to combat Global warming within 100 months (or approx 8 years, but apparently 100 months sounds better)

Now, I am not a climate change denier (cue the heckling from the environmentalists). I believe that the planet is getting hotter and humanity definitely has had a role in this. But it’s the absolute arrogance that we puny humans can destroy the planet that gets to me.

The planet has been here long before us and will probably survive long after us. It has seen off meteors, numerous ice ages, dinosaurs, early human kind and no-doubt will survive anything that modern man/woman can throw at it. If the Earth was a boxer, it would be a heavyweight. Prince Charles seems to think that it is that nerdy kid who gets beaten up after school every day.

It's time to face facts. The ship has sailed. Dramatic climate change is upon us and I believe there is not a great deal we can do to prevent it from happening. I think we should forget about saving the planet and start thinking about saving ourselves.

This, I believe, is a worthy goal. Humanity is one of the most adaptable species on earth. We have landed people of the moon, have had people living in space stations for the past 20 years and have pretty much colonized every area on earth. I think we can deal with a couple of meters of water rises and an increase of 2/3% in temperature. In Hawaii, they call that a nice summer’s day with great surfing.

And it’s not as if one day we will be waking up and seeing the Pacific Ocean lapping at B&B’s in Katoomba. We will have plenty of warning of the impending apocalypse.

Some species of dinosaurs, such as sharks and croc’s, survived previous climate change events and they don’t even have thumbs. If we can create soup from these creatures, surely they can’t be as smart as us (apart from their skill at picking us off on beaches or in lagoons). People will evolve. We might be living in caves or under the ocean, but humanity will survive to pollute the world once more.

By the way, I have a nice cave going cheap in Jenolan. I'm sure it will have great water views by 2130.

Reality Check

Under siege captain of the Australian Cricket team, Picky Ronting seemed to have all the answers when interviewed on the eve of the tour of South Africa.

A journalist opened the inquisition with a question regarding the Australian’s team poor performance and how Picky felt going up against a resurgent South African Team on their home soil

“Are we worried? Not at all”, Ronting replied, clearly bemused by the question.

“Sure, we lost both the test series and one-day series to South Africa, but really we were on top of the South Africans for 99% of the time. It was just those pesky sessions when our batting collapsed like granddad’s old tent and our bowlers couldn’t hit the pitch, let alone the wicket that let us down, but really we were the better team. Remember we did win the Twenty20’s”

Asked about the pressure he was under, Picky clearly felt the shoe was on the other foot.

“While we are about to lose the No 1 test ranking for the first time in 15 years, I’m not under pressure, its Graeme Smith. He and his young team who no one thought would get close to us in Australia let along the pitches of South Africa are surely feeling the pressure now. When we release our 5 debutants on them they will feel our wrath!”

When asked about how he was going to deal with the young batsman J.P Duminy who made our bowling attack look like North Sydney Under 12’s, Picky felt the need to outline a new strategy.

“We can deal with him this time. We have had a good look at him, mainly when he was batting for hours and sending Brett Lee’s deliveries through the covers for four. He seems to have a few weaknesses, like his inability to hit ones and twos. So I’m thinking we go with the underarm delivery again. Hey it worked against the kiwis”

Signal Fire

The Bush fires in Victoria that cost the lives of over 128 people so far can only be called an absolute tragedy. Here at Goat Central, we pass on our condolences to those who have lost loved ones in the fires.

But what amazes me is how over 100 people can lose their lives through bush fire in today’s world of advanced fire prevention, modern firefighting equipment and sophisticated fire tracking?

What the hell happened? Surely there was enough notice given by fire fighters for people to evacuate. I know this was country Victoria, but it isn’t the third world. The last time serious numbers of fatalities were recorded was 25 years ago (the Ash Wednesday Fires in 1983), when firefighting training was primitive compared to the quality now enjoyed by the Regional Bush Fire Service.

All the press coverage so far has (understandably) focused on the terrible toll of those who have lost lives and property, but we definitely need to understand the break down in protocols that led to this disaster.

One of the reasons for the large body count could be that so many people stayed to fight the fires. Apparently in regional Victoria, there are no compulsory evacuations from a fire zone. Residents are given the choice to leave or stay and try to protect their homes (using “fire plans”, what ever they are). Clearly this has to change in the future. The State or Federal Government should have the power to order residents to vacate their homes if there is potential for loss of life. Only Residents with proper fire fighting training/equipment should be allowed to stay in a fire zone. Everyone else should get the hell out.
Also Home Fire insurance should be compulsory for Home Owners so people have less incentive to stay.

I noticed also that Clive Hamilton, writing in Crikey today is using the fires as a call to arms to do something about climate change. As if bush fires have not been part of Australia’s history for the past 200 years. And using such a tragedy to back up his personal views is a disgrace.

Marketing Madness, Oz style

Dear Readers

I need your help finding someone.

A few days ago I met the most incredible woman in the world. While this might come as a shock to my wife, I believe that she is the woman of my dreams.

The plot of this encounter could have come from a script writer’s imagination. There I was in the top level of the train on Thursday morning, reading my newspaper when I felt a presence sit down in the vacant seat beside me.

I turned to give my customary scowl to the public transport trolls who inhabit the North Shore Line and…fell in love.

She had these crystal blue eyes that peered into my soul and saw things even I don’t know. Long Blond hair cascaded over a heart shaped face that would make a bishop kick a hole in a stained glass window. She had a figure that just wouldn’t quit, whatever that means. Her ruby red lips smiled at me as she said "Hope you don’t mind me sitting here. My name is Sindy Mornwing Harold and I’m a part time model specializing in Viral Marketing Campaigns".

"But of course you are" I replied with my usual Bondion wit. Taking a chance, I threw caution to the wind and asked "Would you like to read the Herald with me?
"
"I’d be delighted" the goddess cooed with a knowing smile. She knew I had more than current affairs on my mind!

Anyway, over the course of the journey to the city we engaged. We laughed at the freaks in the letters page; we shook our heads in despair over the right wing antics of Miranda. We talk and I’m amazed. She was clear, concise, knowledgeable and not biased at all.

But our time was cut short. Clearly life was calling. The train pulled into my stop. I walked down the aisle with her, surely a premonition of things to come. Alighting from the train, I turned to her, trying to think of some romantic parting words. As the doors started to close, sweet nothings on my lips, I realize the impossible has happened; she still had my Herald! I was left holding the business section watching my fantasy disappear into the distance.

Now a cynic would have assumed she stole my paper. But I know this is just a ruse for me to prove my love and find her. Using traditional viral methods like You-tube and blogs are all so Generation Y. Being an X man, I’ve decided to go straight for the Heckler.

So if anyone has seen my Sindy Mornwing Harold, please let me know. You can reach me courtesy of the Fairfax Marketing Department.

Robert Jordan RIP

Happy new Year to the Goat Devotees...Sorry I have been slack last year. One post a year is pretty ordinary, even by my pathetic standards. I will endeavour to be a little more diligent with my postings this year...promise!

So, onto this weeks post, Robert Jordan. I often find that the holiday's give me a chance to catch up on my reading and once again, I have turned to the excellent Wheel of Time Series of books by Robert Jordan.

Over the Christmas period I completed the excellent first book "The Eye of the world" and are currently half way through the second novel, "The Great Hunt", also a compelling read.

I still remember picking up these books around 5 years ago and feeling the magic; the well described characters, the plot lines that held such mystery that you had to keep on reading. I also enjoyed the fact that Jordan was a descriptive writer, but that the description wasn't the be all and end all unlike say Tolkien (who seemed to feel the need to describe a tree for what seemed like 20 pages).

Every time a new book was released, I bought it and was amazed to discover that the writing was consistently excellent......
So there was "The Dragon Reborn ", "The Shadow Rising", The Fires from Heaven", "Lord of Chaos" and "Crown of Swords". All equally impressive and up there with my all time favourite fantasy book "Magician" by Raymond E Feist.

Then the wheels started to fall off, After Crown of Swords, the following books seemed more like filler. I stayed true to the cause and read "Path of Daggers","Winters Heart", "Crossroads of Twilight" and "Knife of Dreams". Pretty hard work to get through them. I think Jordan had introduced far too many characters in his universe and was struggling to ensure that their arcs were maintained. Either that or he was writing for the rent money. The first 6 books came out at the rate of 1 per year, but the last 4 seemed to take two years a piece. Maybe the pressure of producing 12 books (each over 700 pages long) was too much. He had lost that loving feeling.

And then the moment that all of his loyal readers feared would happen; he died! With the series incomplete. And the last book is key. Its where we find out what the bloody hell happens to these characters we have grown to love (or hate). The last book is to be written by another author, who will no doubt try his best. It could be a blessing in disguise; a new author could inject some passion into the books again. However, it could all end in tears.

So the moral to the story is clear. If you are an author...write in trilogies. Don't leave the readers guessing