After Round 8 - Team of the Season

Since no tips for this week, figured it would be a good time to unveil the team of the season so far, based on my form stats


Fullback: Peta Hiku (Manly)
Winger :Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Roosters)
Winger: Marika Koroibete (Storm)
Centre: Joel Thompson (Dragons)
Centre: Will Chambers (Storm)
5/8: Chad Townsend (Warriors)
Half: Anthony Milford (Broncos)
Lock: Trent Merrin (Dragons)
Second Row: Simon Mannering (Warriors)
Second Row: Ethan Lowe (Cowboys)
Front Row: Aaron Woods (Tigers)
Front Row: Jesse Bromwich (Storm)
Hooker: Issac Luke (Souths)




Interchange:George Burgess (Souths)
Interchange: Ben Matulino (Warriors)
Interchange: Tohu Harris (Storm)
Interchange: Martin Taupau (Tigers)


What is a worry is that 7 of these players are in the Kiwi side playing on Friday night! (though a lot of them are playing out of position) Compared to only 3 Australians! So if you tipped on form, you would probably go the Kiwis.
But I always think home field advantage, so I recon the Kangeroos will win, but only just


The Australian team (with ranking in position)


Fullback: Greg Inglis (Souths) - (2)
Winger : Alex Johnson (Souths) - (11)
Winger: Josh Dugan (Dragons) - (Out of Position - 3rd best Fullback)
Centre: Michael Jennings (Roosters) - (6)
Centre: Will Chambers (Storm) - (2)
5/8: Jonathon Thurston (Cowboys) - (3)
Half: Cooper Cronk (Storm) - (8)
Lock: Corey Parker (Broncos) - (3)
Second Row: Greg Bird (Titans) - (Out of Position - 11th best Lock)
Second Row: Sam Thaiday (Broncos) - (8)
Front Row: Aaron Woods (Tigers) - (1)
Front Row: Mathew Scott (Cowboys) - (4)
Hooker: Cameron Smith (Storm) - (2)


Interchange: Luke Lewis (Sharks) - (Out of Position - 21st best Second Rower)
Interchange: Trent Merrin (Dragons) - (Out of Position - 1st Lock)
Interchange: Nate Myles (Titans) - (Out of Position - 13th best Front Row)
Interchange: James Tamou (Cowboys) - (Out of Position - 8th best Front Row)
Interchange: Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly) - (Out of Position - 2nd best Half)
Interchange: Josh Papalii (Raiders) - (Out of Position - 9th Best Second Rower)


So all up not a bad side. Everyone in the top 8 in their positions, with the exceptions of Alex Johnson, Greg Bird, Luke Lewis, Nate Myles and Josh Papalii, who must buy their lottery tickets.

Round 8 Results - 5 out of 8. Tipping percentage: 54.69%

Tips:


Bulldogs (by 8): Result Tigers by 24 (32 point differential)
Warriors (by 5): Result Titans by 4 (9 point differential)
Cowboys (by 8): Result Cowboys by 2 (6 point differential)
Dragons (by 3): Result Dragons by 2 (1 point differential)
Storm (by 22): Result Manly by 2 (24 point differential)
Broncos (by 16): Result  Broncos by 12 (4 point differential)
Penrith (by 1) : Result Panthers by 8 (7 point differential)
Raiders (by 3) : Raiders by 8 (5 point differential)


ELO Rankings after round 8

St. George Illawarra Dragons	1749.750526
North Queensland Cowboys	1693.537954
Brisbane Broncos	1669.199823
Gold Coast Titans	1595.386853
Wests Tigers	1583.264089
Melbourne Storm	1581.181391
Canberra Raiders	1564.039293
Sydney Roosters	1454.297767
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	1446.664995
New Zealand Warriors	1439.899698
Penrith Panthers	1429.18366
South Sydney Rabbitohs	1391.185437
Parramatta Eels	1390.910565
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	1323.845551
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	1307.307819
Newcastle Knights	1301.841963

Round 8 NRL tips

Bulldogs (by 8)
Warriors (by 5)
Cowboys (by 8)
Dragons (by 3)
Storm (by 22)
Broncos (by 16)
Penrith (by 1)
Raiders (by 3)

Form NSW Origin Halves....you would have to go the Roosters

Been looking at my player stats since nrl.com finally got its act together regarding its statistics. For 6 rounds, the official stats site couldn't get its "Games Played" right for each player. Ordinary!!! But that is another story.


Anyway, we are back in operation to calculate my "Form Weighting" value for each player. This is a stat that combines attacking stats and defensive stats into 1 handing number that is then adjusted for games played..The reason this happens is obviously a player who plays the majority of games at a quality level is more valuable than one that plays 2 blinders and then sits out the season.


I applied my stat to the likely origin halves and it doesn't look good for NSW. I have Cooper Cronk (18.69 form Weighting) and Jonathon Thurston (23.3!! OUTPERFROM) outpointing the Reynolds (11.95) / Hodkinson (13.43) combination easily. So Joey Johns was definitely on the money in his comments about being "terrified" by the form of the blues halves..


In fact, if NSW were picking on combination and form, the best option would be to go the back to the Roosters pairing.
The Maloney (22.19) / Pearce (22.97) combination this year more than matches the Queenslanders.


But this is when the whole loyalty rubbish in Origin is flawed. You should be picking your best players season to season, not the "pick and stick" stuff that is practiced by Mal and Laurie.


Anyway, we will wait and see.

Round 7 results - 6 out of 8! Tipping percentage back to 53.57%

Tips


Bulldogs (by 14): Result - Bulldogs by 12 (2 point differential)
Dragons (by 8): Result - Dragons by 2 (6 point differential)
Titans (by 10): Result - Titans by 26 (16 point differential)
Cowboys (by 12): Result - Cowboys by 4 (8 point differential)
Storm (by 13): Result - Strom by 1 (12 point differential)
Tigers (by 13) : Result - Canberra by 8 (21 point differential)
Knights (by 11): Result - Parramatta by 6 (17 point differential)
Sharks (by 6) : Result - Sharks by 8 (2 point differential)


ELO Rankings after Round 7

St. George Illawarra Dragons	1724.736208
North Queensland Cowboys	1677.703071
Brisbane Broncos	1656.064595
Melbourne Storm	1644.58387
Gold Coast Titans	1528.946984
Canberra Raiders	1510.428524
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	1509.319213
New Zealand Warriors	1506.339567
Sydney Roosters	1479.312086
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	1468.491337
South Sydney Rabbitohs	1444.796206
Wests Tigers	1438.618304
Parramatta Eels	1404.045793
Penrith Panthers	1366.529441
Newcastle Knights	1317.676845
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	1243.90534

Round 7 NRL tips

Bulldogs (by 14)
Dragons (by 8)
Titans (by 10)
Cowboys (by 12)
Storm (by 13)
Tigers (by 13)
Knights (by 11)
Sharks (by 6)

Round 6 results - 3 out of 8...boo. Tipping percentage down to 50%

Results as below


Broncos - by 13 : Result - Broncos by 4 (9 point differential)
Sharks - by 4: Result - Sharks by 16 (12 point differential)
Eels - by 12: Result - Titans by 22 (34 point differential)
Tigers - by 1: Result - Warriors by 10 (11 point differential)
Panthers - by 10: Result - Panthers by 10 (0 point differential)
Raiders - by 1: Result - Melbourne by 4 (5 point differential)
Bulldogs - by 8: Result - Dragons by 25 (33 point differential)
Rabboits - by 11: Result - Cowboys by 18 (29 point differential)


ELO Ratings as below

St. George Illawarra Dragons	1708.657
Brisbane Broncos	1672.144
North Queensland Cowboys	1663.306
Melbourne Storm	1638.709
Wests Tigers	1551.95
New Zealand Warriors	1520.737
Gold Coast Titans	1490.104
Sydney Roosters	1485.187
South Sydney Rabbitohs	1484.762
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	1469.354
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	1450.199
Newcastle Knights	1413.624
Penrith Panthers	1405.373
Canberra Raiders	1397.097
Parramatta Eels	1308.099
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	1262.198

Round 6 NRL tips...Come in spinner

Tips for this week


Broncos - by 13
Sharks - by 4
Eels - by 12
Tigers - by 1
Panthers - by 10
Raiders - by 1
Bulldogs - by 8
Rabboits - by 11

Round 5 results - Ouch! 2 out of 8. Tipping percentage : 52.5%

Bulldogs (by 1) - Result: Souths (by 1) 2 point differential
Broncos (by 2) - Result: Broncos (by 10) 8 point differential
Manly (by 1) - Result: Canberra (by 13) 14 point differential
Knights (by 14) - Result: St George (by 13) - 27 point differential
Roosters (by 20) - Result: Cronulla (by 8) - 28 point differential
Eels (by 1) - Result: Tigers (by 16) - 17 point differential
Storm (by 9) - Result: Storm (by 16) - 7 point differential
Panthers (by 14)  - Result: Cowboys (by 20)  - 34 point differential


ELO Rankings after round 5 (going to be some movement due to the upsets)

Brisbane Broncos	1658.973516
South Sydney Rabbitohs	1631.247432
Wests Tigers	1629.201494
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	1598.221143
Melbourne Storm	1587.551902
St. George Illawarra Dragons	1560.634477
North Queensland Cowboys	1516.819789
Sydney Roosters	1498.357959
Newcastle Knights	1477.585246
Parramatta Eels	1467.32901
Canberra Raiders	1448.253721
New Zealand Warriors	1443.485299
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	1405.392586
Penrith Panthers	1377.450425
Gold Coast Titans	1330.873377
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	1290.120008

Round 5 NRL tips

Tips for this week


Bulldogs (by 1)
Broncos (by 2)
Manly (by 1)
Knights (by 14)
Roosters (by 20)
Eels (by 1)
Storm (by 9)
Panthers (by 14)