Round 21 NRL Tips

Roosters (by 19)
Melbourne (by 9)
Cronulla (by 1) * Against the bookies. Bet
Cowboys (by 19)
Broncos (by 8)
Dragons (by 9)
Rabbits (by 17)
Parramatta (by 6) * Against the bookies. Bet

Round 20 NRL Results: 5 out of 8. Tipping percentage 88/144 (61.11%)

ELO Rankings after Round 20 (Manly starting to surge in form...might be too late)

North Queensland Cowboys	1851.757334
Brisbane Broncos	1840.216153
Sydney Roosters	1830.964248
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	1647.78888
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	1619.692063
Melbourne Storm	1544.7377
South Sydney Rabbitohs	1537.166519
Canberra Raiders	1530.597736
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	1506.959483
Parramatta Eels	1471.999346
New Zealand Warriors	1453.897201
St. George Illawarra Dragons	1281.048543
Penrith Panthers	1267.740914
Newcastle Knights	1212.713778
Wests Tigers	1166.788452
Gold Coast Titans	1157.429032

Round 20 NRL tips - All with the Bookies this week

Tips for this week


Broncos (by 34)
Roosters (by 19)
Warriors (by 11)
Storm (by 7)
Rabbits (by 18)
Panthers (by 3)
Bulldogs (by 6)
Cowboys (by 21)

Round 19 Results: 7 out of 8! Tipping percentage 83/136 (61%)

Hit the 60% tipping percentage...well done me!


ELO Rankings for this week

North Queensland Cowboys	1840.866655
Brisbane Broncos	1838.529399
Sydney Roosters	1819.431545
New Zealand Warriors	1604.194776
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	1574.283477
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	1552.36807
South Sydney Rabbitohs	1521.281745
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	1497.491306
Melbourne Storm	1495.509006
Parramatta Eels	1482.890025
Canberra Raiders	1444.486482
Penrith Panthers	1353.852168
St. George Illawarra Dragons	1330.277237
Newcastle Knights	1228.598552
Wests Tigers	1178.321155
Gold Coast Titans	1159.115786

Round 19 NRL Tips

Bulldogs (by 3)
Storm (by 7)
Raiders (by 3)
Knights (by 3)
Rabbits (by 2)
Roosters (by 13)
Broncos (by 33)
Cowboys (by 1) * Against the bookies (bet)


A lot of close games this week.

Round 18 results - 5 out of 6. Tipping percentage 76/128. 59.38%

ELO Rankings for this week

Brisbane Broncos	1836.74878
Sydney Roosters	1793.431841
North Queensland Cowboys	1756.000206
New Zealand Warriors	1630.19448
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	1582.357754
Parramatta Eels	1557.580064
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	1548.706888
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	1477.678031
Canberra Raiders	1470.06307
South Sydney Rabbitohs	1446.259709
Melbourne Storm	1438.117188
Penrith Panthers	1411.243987
St. George Illawarra Dragons	1405.299272
Gold Coast Titans	1241.57582
Wests Tigers	1180.101775
Newcastle Knights	1146.138519

Based on the State of Origin Series Player Ratings, here would be my form Australian Side...wonder how accurate it would be?

3. Greg Inglis (QLD)	Fullback
2. Darius Boyd (QLD)	Winger 1
5. Will Chambers (QLD)	Centre 1
4. Justin Hodges (QLD)	Centre 2
2. Will Hopoate (NSW)	Winger 1
6. Johnathan Thurston (QLD)	Five-eighth
7. Trent Hodkinson (NSW)	Halfback
8. Aaron Woods (NSW)	Prop 1
9. Cameron Smith (QLD)	Hooker
10. Nate Myles (QLD)	Prop 2
11. Aidan Guerra (QLD)	2nd Row 1
12. Sam Thaiday (QLD)	2nd Row 2
13. Corey Parker (QLD)	Lock
16. David Klemmer (NSW)	Interchange
17. Jacob Lillyman (QLD)	Interchange
16. Matt Gillett (QLD)	Interchange
15. Boyd Cordner (NSW)	Interchange

I would only disagree with the no 7....the reason Trent got the gig was he had stats for 3 games, rather than Cooper's stats for two. Still the system suggests that Trent was a more valuable player as he was in the series for 3 games.

State of Origin Series 2015 - Total form Stats

Here are my player rankings for the series as a whole.

1	8. Aaron Woods (NSW)
2	5. Will Chambers (QLD)
3	13. Corey Parker (QLD)
4	10. Nate Myles (QLD)
5	3. Greg Inglis (QLD)
6	8. Matthew Scott (QLD)
7	11. Aidan Guerra (QLD)
8	4. Justin Hodges (QLD)
9	13. Paul Gallen (NSW)
10	9. Cameron Smith (QLD)
11	1. Josh Dugan (NSW)
12	3. Michael Jennings (NSW)
13	12. Sam Thaiday (QLD)
14	10. James Tamou (NSW)
15	12. Ryan Hoffman (NSW)
16	16. David Klemmer (NSW)
17	6. Johnathan Thurston (QLD)
18	17. Jacob Lillyman (QLD)
19	2. Darius Boyd (QLD)
20	9. Robbie Farah (NSW)
21	16. Matt Gillett (QLD)
22	15. Boyd Cordner (NSW)
23	14. Trent Merrin (NSW)
24	11. Beau Scott (NSW)
25	2. Will Hopoate (NSW)
26	17. Josh Jackson (NSW)
27	6. Mitchell Pearce (NSW)
28	7. Trent Hodkinson (NSW)
29	4. Josh Morris (NSW)
30	1. Billy Slater (QLD)
31	7. Cooper Cronk (QLD)
32	17. Andrew Fifita (NSW)
33	18. Michael Ennis (NSW)
34	14. Michael Morgan (QLD)
35	5. Brett Morris (NSW)
36	15. Josh McGuire (QLD)
37	7. Daly Cherry-Evans (QLD)
38	5. Dane Gagai (QLD)
39	15. Josh Papalii (QLD)
40	5. Daniel Tupou (NSW)

Tips for NRL Round 18

Tips for this week


Raiders (by 19)
Roosters (by 3)
Broncos (by 4) * Against the bookies - bet
Warriors (by 12)
Sharks (by 9)
Titans (by 3) * Against the bookies - bet

State of Origin 3 - WOW

What a killing! Not much else to be said really...QLD too good. If you look at my Value Add points...QLD delivered at over 100 more points than NSW. Here are the player rankings based on those points. When 14 out of the top 20 players are wearing QLD jerseys, you know NSW is in for a tough ride.

1	13. Paul Gallen (NSW)	Lock
2	3. Will Chambers (QLD)	Centre 1
3	13. Corey Parker (QLD)	Lock
4	8. Aaron Woods (NSW)	Prop 1
5	8. Matthew Scott (QLD)	Prop 1
6	3. Michael Jennings (NSW)	Centre 1
7	11. Aidan Guerra (QLD)	2nd Row 1
8	6. Johnathan Thurston (QLD)	Five-eighth
9	18. Michael Ennis (NSW)	Hooker
10	10. Nate Myles (QLD)	Prop 2
11	1. Greg Inglis (QLD)	Fullback
12	17. Jacob Lillyman (QLD)	Interchange
13	16. David Klemmer (NSW)	Interchange
14	9. Cameron Smith (QLD)	Hooker
15	5. Dane Gagai (QLD)	Winger 2
16	12. Sam Thaiday (QLD)	2nd Row 2
17	16. Matt Gillett (QLD)	Interchange
18	15. Boyd Cordner (NSW)	Interchange
19	15. Josh Papalii (QLD)	Interchange
20	4. Justin Hodges (QLD)	Centre 2
21	10. James Tamou (NSW)	Prop 2
22	1. Josh Dugan (NSW)	Fullback
23	14. Trent Merrin (NSW)	Interchange
24	2. Darius Boyd (QLD)	Winger 1
25	4. Josh Morris (NSW)	Centre 2
26	11. Beau Scott (NSW)	2nd Row 1
27	7. Cooper Cronk (QLD)	Halfback
28	6. Mitchell Pearce (NSW)	Five-eighth
29	17. Josh Jackson (NSW)	Interchange
30	7. Trent Hodkinson (NSW)	Halfback
31	14. Michael Morgan (QLD)	Interchange
32	2. Will Hopoate (NSW)	Winger 1
33	5. Brett Morris (NSW)	Winger 2
34	12. Ryan Hoffman (NSW)	2nd Row 2

State of Origin Game 3 Prediction. Queensland by 3

On Player rankings, Queensland has the stronger side.


NSW (Player form ranking in brackets)                               QLD


Dugan (69)                                                                            Inglis (113)
Hopoate (98)                                                                         Boyd (275)
Jennings (173)                                                                       Chambers (57)
Morris J (194)                                                                       Hodges (247)
Morris B (270)                                                                      Gagai (52)
Pearce (152)                                                                          Thurston (164)
Hodkinson (271)                                                                   Cronk (248)


Woods (8)                                                                              Scott (17)
Farah (146)                                                                            Smith (55)
Tamou (27)                                                                            Myles (62)
Scott (202)                                                                             Guerra (106)
Hoffman (72)                                                                         Thaiday (115)
Gallen (89)                                                                             Parker (39)


Merrin (7)                                                                               Morgan (161)
Cordner (33)                                                                           Papalii (35)
Klemmer (123)                                                                       Gillet (34)
Jackson (64)                                                                            Lillyman (43)


So based on this, Queensland has the edge in Backs and Forwards, slight disadvantage in the Interchange. But all up, Queensland has the strongest side.


On the ELO method, it is Queensland by 3, mainly due to home field advantage.

NRL Season 2015 - most improved from 2014

Just calculated my player rankings for this season so far. I then compared the rankings with the previous years rankings (from the end of the season). I then ranked the improvement. And this is my top 10 most improved players


1. Ryan James (Titans)
2. Jake Granville (Cowboys)
3. Frank Pritchard (Bulldogs)
4. Tuimoala Lolohea (Warriors)
5. Justin O'Neill (Cowboys)
6. Ethan Lowe (Cowboys)
7. James Tedesco (Tigers)
8. Kierran Moseley (Titans)
9. Luke Lewis (Sharks)
10. Edrick Lee (Raiders)


No wonder the Cowboys are going great guns...three of the most improved players are on their side.

Results for Round 17 - 3 out of 4 (Tipping percentage: 71/122 58.2%)

ELO Rankings after Round 17

Brisbane Broncos	1790.408773
North Queensland Cowboys	1756.000206
Sydney Roosters	1723.185247
New Zealand Warriors	1606.133279
Parramatta Eels	1557.580064
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs	1524.018038
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks	1509.401296
Penrith Panthers	1481.490581
Melbourne Storm	1462.178389
Canberra Raiders	1459.478717
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles	1456.118582
South Sydney Rabbitohs	1446.259709
St. George Illawarra Dragons	1444.604864
Gold Coast Titans	1367.814992
Wests Tigers	1180.101775
Newcastle Knights	1156.722872

Tips for NRL Round 17

System is tipping a few upsets...we will see.


Panthers (by 2) * Against the bookies - bet
Cowboys (by 2) * Against the bookies - bet
Sharks (by 3) * Against the bookies - bet
Eels (by 4)