State of Origin tonight - NSW to win

I can't believe the bookies are picking QLD to win. For me it's a no brainer. NSW....home field advantage, QLD with out of form players like Billy Slater, Darius Boyd and Cooper Cronk in the backline. NSW with best fullback.


If you look at the team listings, NSW has less players out of form, and more specialisation in the backs.

Dugan	Number 1 Fullback				Slater	15th best Fullback
Tupou	15th best Winger				Boyd	18th best fullback (Out of position)
Jennings	10th best centre				Inglis	3rd best fullback (out of position)
J.Moris	11th best fullback (Out of Position)				Hodges	16th best centre
Hopoate	3rd best Winger				Chambers	3rd best center (out of position)
Pearce	3rd best half (out of position)				Thurston	3rd best 5/8
Hodkinson	13th best half				Cronk	8th best half
Woods	2nd best prop				Scott	4th best Prop
Farah	4th best hooker				Smith	2nd best Hooker
Tamou	9th best prop				Myles	12th best prop
Hoffman	11th best 2nd row				Guerra	21st best second row
Scott	26th best 2nd row				Thaiday	13th best second row
Jackson	7th best 2nd row (Out of Position)				Parker	2nd best Lock
Merrin	Number 1 lock - Out of position				Cherry Evans	4th best half - Out of position
Klemmer	35th best utility				Mcguire	8th best prop - out of position
Fifita	5th best prop - Out of position				Gillet	5th best second row - Out of position
Cordinor	5th best lock - Out of position				Lillyman	11th best utility

Though if I was NSW selector, I would have got rid of  Scott (overrated), moved Jackson into the second row, moved Merrin to start as Lock and then maybe add utility on the bench who could have filled in in the halves. Would have been a more balanced side...and because Hodkinson could be a liability.