Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Entourage the movie: It sucked!

Being a fan of the TV Series, I did a quick thrill purchase and picked up the DVD when I was shopping. Watched it last night. Disappointing! The reasons are:


1. Soulless. There didn't seem to be any major themes running through the movie. The TV Series was a study of friendship and nihilism in the superficial world of Hollywood, but the movie didn't really explore those themes at all.


2. Weird Characters: No Ari daughter. No Tom (Lloyd's long term partner). Minor roles for other large players in the series.


3. Cameo city: Didn't seem to be any reason for a lot of the cameos...other than to get in the movie. Jessica Alba??? Why?


4. Writing. Ordinary plot, which just seem to focus on E's women problems, Turtles wealth and his attempts to get Rhonda R into Bed. The Ari/Vince movie funding didn't really take off. Drama (the most interesting character in the series for mine) didn't get much of an arc. Not much to sustain 2 hours.


5. No chemistry at all between Vince's character and Emily R.


6. Acting: Ham acting by just about everyone. Jeremy Piven, usually reliable, bit too over the top.


I don't see a lot of repeat watchability, unlike the series.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Tip for NRL Final

And so it ends...the last game.


According to my system, its the Cowboys by 2 for the win on Sunday. Go Thurston!

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Dally M Shockers!

Was curious about the selections for the Dally M winners in each position. Some absolute shockers in there. Makes me feel like there was a bit of a conspiracy. I'll go through the positions..


1.Fullback - Should win : Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (2.74 SDs better than the average Fullback) Winner : Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (No Argument. Would have been my selection for Dally M Medal winner)


2. Winger - Should win : Marika Koroibete (1.65 SDs better than the average Winger). Winner: Semi Radradra (1.24 SD's better) I think Marika had a better season, but Semi was the third best winger according to my system and z score > 1 SD in performance so we will let that one go.


3. Centre - Should win : Will Chambers (2.08 SD's better than the average Centre). Winner : James Roberts (1.21 SD's better). Look, James had a pretty good season and is an elite player...but to not give it to Will Chambers who was twice as good as the average centre is my nomination for first shocker!)


4. Five eighth - Should win : Anthony Milford (1.59 SD's better than the average 5/8). Winner : Blake Austin (0.91 SD's better). Another shocker! Anthony Milford had one of the best seasons, he is in the grand finals and they have given the award to Blake Austin, a player who faded badly in the final few games and isn't in the elite according to my system. Ordinary decision.


5. Half Back - Should win : Johnathan Thurston (1.53 SD's better than the average half). Winner : Johnathan Thurston (No Argument.)


6. Lock - Should win : Paul Gallen (1.29 SD's better than the average lock). Winner :Jason Taumalolo (0.80 SD's better)
Another shocker! Paul or Shaun Fenson (or even Cory Parker) all performed at a higher level with a z score >1


7. Second Rower - Should win :Simon Mannering (1.57 SD's better than the average Second Rower) Winner : Josh Jackson (0.97 SD's better)
Shocker! So many good second rowers and they give it to a Bulldog


8. Prop - Should win: Jesse Bromwich (2.06 SD's better than the average Prop). Winner : Aaron Woods (1.22 SD's better). Another decision that is border line. Aaron Woods had a good season, but Jesse did a lot better.


10. Hooker - Should win: Andrew McCullough (1.84 SD's better than the average Hooker). Winner : Michael Ennis! (0.8 SD's better)
This one beggers belief. I count Michael Ennis as being the 8th best hooker in the game, behind Andrew, Cameron Smith, Mitch Rein, Issac Luke, Matt Ballin, Nathan Friend and Jake Friend. How he got the nod is one of the great mysteries.







Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Tips for NRL finals week 3

Got the last two tips...but that was pretty easy.


For this weeks finals


Roosters (by 5)
Storm (by 8) *Against the bookies - bet

Friday, September 18, 2015

Tips for the NRL Finals - Week 2

With the bookies again


Roosters (by 15)
Cowboys (by 4)

Monday, September 14, 2015

NRL Elite Player list - End of Season

Here is my final list of best players (and hence my Picks for the Dally-M player of the year awards). By my reconning, it should be Roger Tuivasa-Sheck as the best player...he has the highest z-score. Anyway, player scores as below.


Club Player Position z-Score
warriors Simon Mannering 2nd Row 1.568349517
sharks Wade Graham 2nd Row 1.56228078
broncos Matt Gillett 2nd Row 1.281601709
cowboys Gavin Cooper 2nd Row 1.274521517
dragons Leeson Ah Mau 2nd Row 1.255020643
cowboys Ethan Lowe 2nd Row 1.171858722
cowboys Jason Taumalolo 2nd Row 1.131400477
roosters Sio Siua Taukeiaho 2nd Row 1.094482329
broncos Alex Glenn Centre 2.309502085
storm Will Chambers Centre 1.969098673
cowboys Kane Linnett Centre 1.891864285
knights Dane Gagai Centre 1.539303608
dragons Joel Thompson Centre 1.231081191
rabbitohs Bryson Goodwin Centre 1.17101
raiders Jack Wighton Centre 1.126671741
raiders Jarrod Croker Centre 1.084478881
sharks Ricky Leutele Centre 1.02655309
rabbitohs Dylan Walker Centre 1.022977424
roosters Blake Ferguson Centre 1.003879161
broncos Anthony Milford Five-eighth 1.597221717
knights Kurt Gidley Five-eighth 1.092094362
roosters James Maloney Five-eighth 1.075493932
roosters Roger Tuivasa-Sheck Fullback 2.841071052
dragons Josh Dugan Fullback 1.363911473
cowboys Johnathan Thurston Halfback 1.527786622
broncos Ben Hunt Halfback 1.378144979
sea-eagles Daly Cherry-Evans Halfback 1.258899294
broncos Andrew McCullough Hooker 1.843497927
storm Cameron Smith Hooker 1.468151832
dragons Mitch Rein Hooker 1.195132055
rabbitohs Issac Luke Hooker 1.11908545
rabbitohs George Burgess Interchange 1.548120399
storm Tohu Harris Interchange 1.384626856
dragons Mike Cooper Interchange 1.383540521
roosters Dylan Napa Interchange 1.259155068
warriors Ben Matulino Interchange 1.164100683
titans Luke Douglas Interchange 1.08697084
panthers Jeremy Latimore Interchange 1.075564313
sharks Paul Gallen Lock 1.321929942
raiders Shaun Fensom Lock 1.234269036
broncos Corey Parker Lock 1.065736587
storm Jesse Bromwich Prop 2.064129917
rabbitohs Thomas Burgess Prop 1.381911017
bulldogs Aiden Tolman Prop 1.379738345
west-tigers Aaron Woods Prop 1.225478658
knights Kade Snowden Prop 1.135855952
cowboys Matthew Scott Prop 1.114129235
cowboys Ben Hannant Prop 1.058726108
eels Tim Mannah Prop 1.041887903
storm Marika Koroibete Winger 1.618931922
bulldogs Sam Perrett Winger 1.274148844
titans James Roberts Winger 1.246019688
eels Semi Radradra Winger 1.213068392
cowboys Justin O'Neill Winger 1.210657321
roosters Daniel Tupou Winger 1.095729629
west-tigers Kevin Naiqama Winger 1.095729629
sharks Valentine Holmes Winger 1.078048445
knights Akuila Uate Winger 1.077244755
raiders Edrick Lee Winger 1.042686078
bulldogs Curtis Rona Winger 1.00250157
eels Will Hopoate Winger 1.0000905

Friday, September 11, 2015

Tips for the NRL finals- Week 1

All with the bookies again


Roosters (by 20)
Bulldogs (by 17)
Broncos (by 7)
Sharks (by 5)

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Best teams of the last 6 years - AFL

Since I did it for the NRL, I'm now applying it to the AFL. AFL is generally not as even as NRL (the STDEV is a lot higher generally), and it does show in the top 10 teams. Shows the dominance of Geelong and the Hawks over the last 6 years.


COLLCOLL Collingwood  2011 1.76319   Runner Up
HAWHAW Hawthorn  2013 1.646346   Winner
COLLCOLL Collingwood  2010 1.630618   Winner
GEELGEEL Geelong Cats  2010 1.630618  Prelim Final
GEELGEEL Geelong Cats  2011 1.571048  Winner
GEELGEEL Geelong Cats  2013 1.441972  Prelim Final
SYDSYD Sydney Swans  2014 1.425232  Runner Up
HAWHAW Hawthorn  2014 1.425232  Winner
GEELGEEL Geelong Cats  2014 1.425232  Semi Final
HAWHAW Hawthorn  2011 1.378905  Prelim Final

Monday, September 7, 2015

Best Teams of the last 6 years - z-score

With the Roosters having such a good season this year, and getting the minor premiership, I was curious just how good this team is historically, compared to other teams.


So to do this, I calculated the z-score for each team in each season. This score is calculated by finding the STDEV of each season, then calculating the win percentage of each team in that season, and then calculating the z-score ((Win Percentage - (Mean Win Percentage)/STDEV)


I did this for all 6 seasons, and then ranked the teams from highest z-score to lowest. These are the top 10 (*won Grand final)
Team                        z-score
Roosters (2015) -      1.830
Bulldogs (2012) -     1.710
Roosters (2013) -     1.649*
Rabbits (2013) -       1.649
Storm (2011) -         1.647
Dragons (2010) -     1.590*
Broncos (2015)-      1.520
Cowboys (2015)-    1.520
Storm (2012)-          1.420*
Manly (2011)-          1.410*


Looks a lot like Roosters to win...very dominant side.

NRL Round 26 Results : 4 out of 8: Final ordinary Season tipping percentage : 115/192 (59.9%)

A pretty ordinary last round leaves me with a final tipping percentage under 60%. Boo..60% is our benchmark here at the goat, so ultimately a pretty ordinary tipping performance.


All important ELO rankings going into the finals (Roosters deserve the Minor Premiership...way out in front)


Sydney Roosters 1985.533206
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 1709.042573
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 1669.146496
Melbourne Storm 1653.359059
Brisbane Broncos 1620.577244
North Queensland Cowboys 1614.464026
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 1601.743891
South Sydney Rabbitohs 1481.977272
Canberra Raiders 1450.429948
St. George Illawarra Dragons 1438.394453
Parramatta Eels 1348.080619
Gold Coast Titans 1324.670228
Penrith Panthers 1317.141478
Newcastle Knights 1307.064275
Wests Tigers 1270.288369
New Zealand Warriors 1129.584249

Thursday, September 3, 2015

NRL Round 26 Tips

Last round Been an ordinary season (again) for the Knights. Still, tips for this week, all with the bookies


Broncos (by 14)
Roosters (by 26)
Newcastle (by 1)
St George (by 5)
Cowboys (by 17)
Eels (by 8)
Sharks (by 8)
Bulldogs (by 30)

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

NRL Round 25 Results: 5 out of 8. Season tipping: 111/184 (60.3%)

ELO rankings coming into the all important finals series


Sydney Roosters 1980.872775
Brisbane Broncos 1730.433018
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 1707.672246
Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 1651.233141
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles 1619.657245
North Queensland Cowboys 1597.171541
Melbourne Storm 1543.503284
South Sydney Rabbitohs 1486.637703
Parramatta Eels 1421.998698
St. George Illawarra Dragons 1416.800523
Newcastle Knights 1398.802347
Canberra Raiders 1376.511868
Gold Coast Titans 1341.962713
Wests Tigers 1291.882299
Penrith Panthers 1225.403405
New Zealand Warriors 1130.954576

Thursday, August 27, 2015

NRL Round 25 tips

Broncos (by 3)
Manly (by 2) * Against the bookies - bet
Parramatta (by 3) *Against the bookies - bet
Bulldogs (by 4)
Cowboys (by 2) *Against the bookies - bet
Tigers (by 9)
Titans (by 1) * Against the bookies - bet
Raiders (by 10)

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

New Elite Players of the NRL after Round 24. Had to swap a few positions that were different in nrl.com

Club Player Position z-score
warriors Simon Mannering 2nd Row 1.741491118
sharks Wade Graham 2nd Row 1.555729303
cowboys Ethan Lowe 2nd Row 1.23947836
broncos Matt Gillett 2nd Row 1.207568354
cowboys Gavin Cooper 2nd Row 1.182496208
cowboys Jason Taumalolo 2nd Row 1.095313515
roosters Sio Siua Taukeiaho 2nd Row 1.082777442
broncos Alex Glenn Centre 2.398451961
storm Will Chambers Centre 1.94294443
cowboys Kane Linnett Centre 1.776448573
knights Dane Gagai Centre 1.657074186
dragons Joel Thompson Centre 1.441886145
raiders Jack Wighton Centre 1.280887794
rabbitohs Bryson Goodwin Centre 1.199995939
raiders Jarrod Croker Centre 1.041353661
west-tigers Chris Lawrence Centre 1.032714725
broncos Anthony Milford Five-eighth 1.426018519
roosters James Maloney Five-eighth 1.082475458
raiders Blake Austin Five-eighth 1.077162937
knights Kurt Gidley Five-eighth 1.039089865
warriors Chad Townsend Five-eighth 1.003673055
roosters Roger Tuivasa-Sheck Fullback 2.657458042
dragons Josh Dugan Fullback 1.235719931
west-tigers James Tedesco Fullback 1.070801935
broncos Ben Hunt Halfback 1.408560362
sea-eagles Daly Cherry-Evans Halfback 1.388954028
roosters Mitchell Pearce Halfback 1.304401709
broncos Andrew McCullough Hooker 1.621896286
storm Cameron Smith Hooker 1.442482111
rabbitohs Issac Luke Hooker 1.286439897
sea-eagles Matt Ballin Hooker 1.150332592
dragons Mitch Rein Hooker 1.131085094
rabbitohs George Burgess Interchange 1.634865285
dragons Mike Cooper Interchange 1.29126886
warriors Ben Matulino Interchange 1.26860742
storm Tohu Harris Interchange 1.261870235
raiders Paul Vaughan Interchange 1.253295636
roosters Dylan Napa Interchange 1.179186603
titans Luke Douglas Interchange 1.096502971
storm Dale Finucane Interchange 1.076903888
panthers Jeremy Latimore Interchange 1.064654461
raiders Shaun Fensom Lock 1.434374348
broncos Corey Parker Lock 1.113551439
sharks Paul Gallen Lock 1.058865716
storm Jesse Bromwich Prop 1.908639977
bulldogs Aiden Tolman Prop 1.356190822
rabbitohs Thomas Burgess Prop 1.290656388
west-tigers Aaron Woods Prop 1.250233279
knights Kade Snowden Prop 1.090990729
cowboys Matthew Scott Prop 1.040155607
eels Tim Mannah Prop 1.026681238
storm Marika Koroibete Winger 1.589041259
titans James Roberts Winger 1.310935187
eels Semi Radradra Winger 1.175493919
west-tigers Kevin Naiqama Winger 1.172785093
knights Akuila Uate Winger 1.170076268
bulldogs Sam Perrett Winger 1.168270384
sharks Valentine Holmes Winger 1.129443887
raiders Edrick Lee Winger 1.107773284
cowboys Justin O'Neill Winger 1.105064459