Was curious about the selections for the Dally M winners in each position. Some absolute shockers in there. Makes me feel like there was a bit of a conspiracy. I'll go through the positions..
1.Fullback - Should win : Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (2.74 SDs better than the average Fullback) Winner : Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (No Argument. Would have been my selection for Dally M Medal winner)
2. Winger - Should win : Marika Koroibete (1.65 SDs better than the average Winger). Winner: Semi Radradra (1.24 SD's better) I think Marika had a better season, but Semi was the third best winger according to my system and z score > 1 SD in performance so we will let that one go.
3. Centre - Should win : Will Chambers (2.08 SD's better than the average Centre). Winner : James Roberts (1.21 SD's better). Look, James had a pretty good season and is an elite player...but to not give it to Will Chambers who was twice as good as the average centre is my nomination for first shocker!)
4. Five eighth - Should win : Anthony Milford (1.59 SD's better than the average 5/8). Winner : Blake Austin (0.91 SD's better). Another shocker! Anthony Milford had one of the best seasons, he is in the grand finals and they have given the award to Blake Austin, a player who faded badly in the final few games and isn't in the elite according to my system. Ordinary decision.
5. Half Back - Should win : Johnathan Thurston (1.53 SD's better than the average half). Winner : Johnathan Thurston (No Argument.)
6. Lock - Should win : Paul Gallen (1.29 SD's better than the average lock). Winner :Jason Taumalolo (0.80 SD's better)
Another shocker! Paul or Shaun Fenson (or even Cory Parker) all performed at a higher level with a z score >1
7. Second Rower - Should win :Simon Mannering (1.57 SD's better than the average Second Rower) Winner : Josh Jackson (0.97 SD's better)
Shocker! So many good second rowers and they give it to a Bulldog
8. Prop - Should win: Jesse Bromwich (2.06 SD's better than the average Prop). Winner : Aaron Woods (1.22 SD's better). Another decision that is border line. Aaron Woods had a good season, but Jesse did a lot better.
10. Hooker - Should win: Andrew McCullough (1.84 SD's better than the average Hooker). Winner : Michael Ennis! (0.8 SD's better)
This one beggers belief. I count Michael Ennis as being the 8th best hooker in the game, behind Andrew, Cameron Smith, Mitch Rein, Issac Luke, Matt Ballin, Nathan Friend and Jake Friend. How he got the nod is one of the great mysteries.
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