And so it ends...the last game.
According to my system, its the Cowboys by 2 for the win on Sunday. Go Thurston!
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Dally M Shockers!
Was curious about the selections for the Dally M winners in each position. Some absolute shockers in there. Makes me feel like there was a bit of a conspiracy. I'll go through the positions..
1.Fullback - Should win : Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (2.74 SDs better than the average Fullback) Winner : Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (No Argument. Would have been my selection for Dally M Medal winner)
2. Winger - Should win : Marika Koroibete (1.65 SDs better than the average Winger). Winner: Semi Radradra (1.24 SD's better) I think Marika had a better season, but Semi was the third best winger according to my system and z score > 1 SD in performance so we will let that one go.
3. Centre - Should win : Will Chambers (2.08 SD's better than the average Centre). Winner : James Roberts (1.21 SD's better). Look, James had a pretty good season and is an elite player...but to not give it to Will Chambers who was twice as good as the average centre is my nomination for first shocker!)
4. Five eighth - Should win : Anthony Milford (1.59 SD's better than the average 5/8). Winner : Blake Austin (0.91 SD's better). Another shocker! Anthony Milford had one of the best seasons, he is in the grand finals and they have given the award to Blake Austin, a player who faded badly in the final few games and isn't in the elite according to my system. Ordinary decision.
5. Half Back - Should win : Johnathan Thurston (1.53 SD's better than the average half). Winner : Johnathan Thurston (No Argument.)
6. Lock - Should win : Paul Gallen (1.29 SD's better than the average lock). Winner :Jason Taumalolo (0.80 SD's better)
Another shocker! Paul or Shaun Fenson (or even Cory Parker) all performed at a higher level with a z score >1
7. Second Rower - Should win :Simon Mannering (1.57 SD's better than the average Second Rower) Winner : Josh Jackson (0.97 SD's better)
Shocker! So many good second rowers and they give it to a Bulldog
8. Prop - Should win: Jesse Bromwich (2.06 SD's better than the average Prop). Winner : Aaron Woods (1.22 SD's better). Another decision that is border line. Aaron Woods had a good season, but Jesse did a lot better.
10. Hooker - Should win: Andrew McCullough (1.84 SD's better than the average Hooker). Winner : Michael Ennis! (0.8 SD's better)
This one beggers belief. I count Michael Ennis as being the 8th best hooker in the game, behind Andrew, Cameron Smith, Mitch Rein, Issac Luke, Matt Ballin, Nathan Friend and Jake Friend. How he got the nod is one of the great mysteries.
1.Fullback - Should win : Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (2.74 SDs better than the average Fullback) Winner : Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (No Argument. Would have been my selection for Dally M Medal winner)
2. Winger - Should win : Marika Koroibete (1.65 SDs better than the average Winger). Winner: Semi Radradra (1.24 SD's better) I think Marika had a better season, but Semi was the third best winger according to my system and z score > 1 SD in performance so we will let that one go.
3. Centre - Should win : Will Chambers (2.08 SD's better than the average Centre). Winner : James Roberts (1.21 SD's better). Look, James had a pretty good season and is an elite player...but to not give it to Will Chambers who was twice as good as the average centre is my nomination for first shocker!)
4. Five eighth - Should win : Anthony Milford (1.59 SD's better than the average 5/8). Winner : Blake Austin (0.91 SD's better). Another shocker! Anthony Milford had one of the best seasons, he is in the grand finals and they have given the award to Blake Austin, a player who faded badly in the final few games and isn't in the elite according to my system. Ordinary decision.
5. Half Back - Should win : Johnathan Thurston (1.53 SD's better than the average half). Winner : Johnathan Thurston (No Argument.)
6. Lock - Should win : Paul Gallen (1.29 SD's better than the average lock). Winner :Jason Taumalolo (0.80 SD's better)
Another shocker! Paul or Shaun Fenson (or even Cory Parker) all performed at a higher level with a z score >1
7. Second Rower - Should win :Simon Mannering (1.57 SD's better than the average Second Rower) Winner : Josh Jackson (0.97 SD's better)
Shocker! So many good second rowers and they give it to a Bulldog
8. Prop - Should win: Jesse Bromwich (2.06 SD's better than the average Prop). Winner : Aaron Woods (1.22 SD's better). Another decision that is border line. Aaron Woods had a good season, but Jesse did a lot better.
10. Hooker - Should win: Andrew McCullough (1.84 SD's better than the average Hooker). Winner : Michael Ennis! (0.8 SD's better)
This one beggers belief. I count Michael Ennis as being the 8th best hooker in the game, behind Andrew, Cameron Smith, Mitch Rein, Issac Luke, Matt Ballin, Nathan Friend and Jake Friend. How he got the nod is one of the great mysteries.
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
Tips for NRL finals week 3
Got the last two tips...but that was pretty easy.
For this weeks finals
Roosters (by 5)
Storm (by 8) *Against the bookies - bet
For this weeks finals
Roosters (by 5)
Storm (by 8) *Against the bookies - bet
Friday, September 18, 2015
Monday, September 14, 2015
NRL Elite Player list - End of Season
Here is my final list of best players (and hence my Picks for the Dally-M player of the year awards). By my reconning, it should be Roger Tuivasa-Sheck as the best player...he has the highest z-score. Anyway, player scores as below.
| Club | Player | Position | z-Score |
| warriors | Simon Mannering | 2nd Row | 1.568349517 |
| sharks | Wade Graham | 2nd Row | 1.56228078 |
| broncos | Matt Gillett | 2nd Row | 1.281601709 |
| cowboys | Gavin Cooper | 2nd Row | 1.274521517 |
| dragons | Leeson Ah Mau | 2nd Row | 1.255020643 |
| cowboys | Ethan Lowe | 2nd Row | 1.171858722 |
| cowboys | Jason Taumalolo | 2nd Row | 1.131400477 |
| roosters | Sio Siua Taukeiaho | 2nd Row | 1.094482329 |
| broncos | Alex Glenn | Centre | 2.309502085 |
| storm | Will Chambers | Centre | 1.969098673 |
| cowboys | Kane Linnett | Centre | 1.891864285 |
| knights | Dane Gagai | Centre | 1.539303608 |
| dragons | Joel Thompson | Centre | 1.231081191 |
| rabbitohs | Bryson Goodwin | Centre | 1.17101 |
| raiders | Jack Wighton | Centre | 1.126671741 |
| raiders | Jarrod Croker | Centre | 1.084478881 |
| sharks | Ricky Leutele | Centre | 1.02655309 |
| rabbitohs | Dylan Walker | Centre | 1.022977424 |
| roosters | Blake Ferguson | Centre | 1.003879161 |
| broncos | Anthony Milford | Five-eighth | 1.597221717 |
| knights | Kurt Gidley | Five-eighth | 1.092094362 |
| roosters | James Maloney | Five-eighth | 1.075493932 |
| roosters | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | Fullback | 2.841071052 |
| dragons | Josh Dugan | Fullback | 1.363911473 |
| cowboys | Johnathan Thurston | Halfback | 1.527786622 |
| broncos | Ben Hunt | Halfback | 1.378144979 |
| sea-eagles | Daly Cherry-Evans | Halfback | 1.258899294 |
| broncos | Andrew McCullough | Hooker | 1.843497927 |
| storm | Cameron Smith | Hooker | 1.468151832 |
| dragons | Mitch Rein | Hooker | 1.195132055 |
| rabbitohs | Issac Luke | Hooker | 1.11908545 |
| rabbitohs | George Burgess | Interchange | 1.548120399 |
| storm | Tohu Harris | Interchange | 1.384626856 |
| dragons | Mike Cooper | Interchange | 1.383540521 |
| roosters | Dylan Napa | Interchange | 1.259155068 |
| warriors | Ben Matulino | Interchange | 1.164100683 |
| titans | Luke Douglas | Interchange | 1.08697084 |
| panthers | Jeremy Latimore | Interchange | 1.075564313 |
| sharks | Paul Gallen | Lock | 1.321929942 |
| raiders | Shaun Fensom | Lock | 1.234269036 |
| broncos | Corey Parker | Lock | 1.065736587 |
| storm | Jesse Bromwich | Prop | 2.064129917 |
| rabbitohs | Thomas Burgess | Prop | 1.381911017 |
| bulldogs | Aiden Tolman | Prop | 1.379738345 |
| west-tigers | Aaron Woods | Prop | 1.225478658 |
| knights | Kade Snowden | Prop | 1.135855952 |
| cowboys | Matthew Scott | Prop | 1.114129235 |
| cowboys | Ben Hannant | Prop | 1.058726108 |
| eels | Tim Mannah | Prop | 1.041887903 |
| storm | Marika Koroibete | Winger | 1.618931922 |
| bulldogs | Sam Perrett | Winger | 1.274148844 |
| titans | James Roberts | Winger | 1.246019688 |
| eels | Semi Radradra | Winger | 1.213068392 |
| cowboys | Justin O'Neill | Winger | 1.210657321 |
| roosters | Daniel Tupou | Winger | 1.095729629 |
| west-tigers | Kevin Naiqama | Winger | 1.095729629 |
| sharks | Valentine Holmes | Winger | 1.078048445 |
| knights | Akuila Uate | Winger | 1.077244755 |
| raiders | Edrick Lee | Winger | 1.042686078 |
| bulldogs | Curtis Rona | Winger | 1.00250157 |
| eels | Will Hopoate | Winger | 1.0000905 |
Friday, September 11, 2015
Tips for the NRL finals- Week 1
All with the bookies again
Roosters (by 20)
Bulldogs (by 17)
Broncos (by 7)
Sharks (by 5)
Roosters (by 20)
Bulldogs (by 17)
Broncos (by 7)
Sharks (by 5)
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
Best teams of the last 6 years - AFL
Since I did it for the NRL, I'm now applying it to the AFL. AFL is generally not as even as NRL (the STDEV is a lot higher generally), and it does show in the top 10 teams. Shows the dominance of Geelong and the Hawks over the last 6 years.
| COLLCOLL Collingwood | 2011 | 1.76319 | Runner Up |
| HAWHAW Hawthorn | 2013 | 1.646346 | Winner |
| COLLCOLL Collingwood | 2010 | 1.630618 | Winner |
| GEELGEEL Geelong Cats | 2010 | 1.630618 | Prelim Final |
| GEELGEEL Geelong Cats | 2011 | 1.571048 | Winner |
| GEELGEEL Geelong Cats | 2013 | 1.441972 | Prelim Final |
| SYDSYD Sydney Swans | 2014 | 1.425232 | Runner Up |
| HAWHAW Hawthorn | 2014 | 1.425232 | Winner |
| GEELGEEL Geelong Cats | 2014 | 1.425232 | Semi Final |
| HAWHAW Hawthorn | 2011 | 1.378905 | Prelim Final |
Monday, September 7, 2015
Best Teams of the last 6 years - z-score
With the Roosters having such a good season this year, and getting the minor premiership, I was curious just how good this team is historically, compared to other teams.
So to do this, I calculated the z-score for each team in each season. This score is calculated by finding the STDEV of each season, then calculating the win percentage of each team in that season, and then calculating the z-score ((Win Percentage - (Mean Win Percentage)/STDEV)
I did this for all 6 seasons, and then ranked the teams from highest z-score to lowest. These are the top 10 (*won Grand final)
Team z-score
Roosters (2015) - 1.830
Bulldogs (2012) - 1.710
Roosters (2013) - 1.649*
Rabbits (2013) - 1.649
Storm (2011) - 1.647
Dragons (2010) - 1.590*
Broncos (2015)- 1.520
Cowboys (2015)- 1.520
Storm (2012)- 1.420*
Manly (2011)- 1.410*
Looks a lot like Roosters to win...very dominant side.
So to do this, I calculated the z-score for each team in each season. This score is calculated by finding the STDEV of each season, then calculating the win percentage of each team in that season, and then calculating the z-score ((Win Percentage - (Mean Win Percentage)/STDEV)
I did this for all 6 seasons, and then ranked the teams from highest z-score to lowest. These are the top 10 (*won Grand final)
Team z-score
Roosters (2015) - 1.830
Bulldogs (2012) - 1.710
Roosters (2013) - 1.649*
Rabbits (2013) - 1.649
Storm (2011) - 1.647
Dragons (2010) - 1.590*
Broncos (2015)- 1.520
Cowboys (2015)- 1.520
Storm (2012)- 1.420*
Manly (2011)- 1.410*
Looks a lot like Roosters to win...very dominant side.
NRL Round 26 Results : 4 out of 8: Final ordinary Season tipping percentage : 115/192 (59.9%)
A pretty ordinary last round leaves me with a final tipping percentage under 60%. Boo..60% is our benchmark here at the goat, so ultimately a pretty ordinary tipping performance.
All important ELO rankings going into the finals (Roosters deserve the Minor Premiership...way out in front)
All important ELO rankings going into the finals (Roosters deserve the Minor Premiership...way out in front)
| Sydney Roosters | 1985.533206 |
| Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | 1709.042573 |
| Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles | 1669.146496 |
| Melbourne Storm | 1653.359059 |
| Brisbane Broncos | 1620.577244 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 1614.464026 |
| Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 1601.743891 |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 1481.977272 |
| Canberra Raiders | 1450.429948 |
| St. George Illawarra Dragons | 1438.394453 |
| Parramatta Eels | 1348.080619 |
| Gold Coast Titans | 1324.670228 |
| Penrith Panthers | 1317.141478 |
| Newcastle Knights | 1307.064275 |
| Wests Tigers | 1270.288369 |
| New Zealand Warriors | 1129.584249 |
Thursday, September 3, 2015
NRL Round 26 Tips
Last round Been an ordinary season (again) for the Knights. Still, tips for this week, all with the bookies
Broncos (by 14)
Roosters (by 26)
Newcastle (by 1)
St George (by 5)
Cowboys (by 17)
Eels (by 8)
Sharks (by 8)
Bulldogs (by 30)
Broncos (by 14)
Roosters (by 26)
Newcastle (by 1)
St George (by 5)
Cowboys (by 17)
Eels (by 8)
Sharks (by 8)
Bulldogs (by 30)
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
NRL Round 25 Results: 5 out of 8. Season tipping: 111/184 (60.3%)
ELO rankings coming into the all important finals series
| Sydney Roosters | 1980.872775 |
| Brisbane Broncos | 1730.433018 |
| Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs | 1707.672246 |
| Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks | 1651.233141 |
| Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles | 1619.657245 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 1597.171541 |
| Melbourne Storm | 1543.503284 |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 1486.637703 |
| Parramatta Eels | 1421.998698 |
| St. George Illawarra Dragons | 1416.800523 |
| Newcastle Knights | 1398.802347 |
| Canberra Raiders | 1376.511868 |
| Gold Coast Titans | 1341.962713 |
| Wests Tigers | 1291.882299 |
| Penrith Panthers | 1225.403405 |
| New Zealand Warriors | 1130.954576 |
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